Pagasa forecast: 8 to 14 tropical cyclones under weak La Niña

MANILA, Philippines — The looming La Niña weather phenomenon will most likely form in the next three months, but is expected to be “weak,” according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

“Most climate models … suggest a 66 percent chance of La Niña forming in September to October, and will likely persist until the first quarter of 2025,” Pagasa senior weather specialist Rusy Abastillas said in an online climate forum on Wednesday.

The state weather bureau expects “borderline La Niña or La Niña-like conditions” to occur during the period, with around 8 to 14 tropical cyclones estimated to enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) until January next year. For September and October, it said up to three tropical cyclones may hit the country.

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According to Abastillas, “near-normal to above-normal” rainfall will likely occur by October until January 2025, with a high probability of “above-normal” rains in most parts of the country.

Major dams, on the other hand, are seen to be within normal water levels until November, except for Magat Dam in Isabela province which is forecast to reach “spilling level,” or beyond its maximum 193 meters above sea level.

Other dams under monitoring for the next three months by Pagasa are Angat, San Roque and Pantabangan.

More rains expected

In its 4 p.m. weather update on Wednesday, Pagasa weather specialist Aldczar Aurelio said the southwest monsoon (habagat) would continue to bring “occasional” rains over Luzon and the Visayas.

But he confirmed that no low pressure area or tropical cyclone has so far been detected within PAR.

In Quezon City, La Mesa Dam overflowed on Wednesday morning as heavy rains induced by the southwest monsoon were experienced in Metro Manila.

The dam’s water level, however, dropped to 80.12 meters, which was below its spilling level, in the afternoon, Pagasa noted.