Pagasa: Strong El Niño expected to prevail until February

MANILA, Philippines — A strong El Niño is causing warm weather in the country, which may extend until February, state meteorologists said on Monday.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) explained that while the strong El Niño may last until next month, the regular El Niño phenomenon will persist until May.

Pagasa said El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts (such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country.

This is expected to transition to a neutral state of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from April to June 2024.

“Majority of global climate models suggest that El Niño will likely persist until the March-April-May 2024 season with a transition to ENSO-neutral in the April-May-June 2024 season,” the state weather bureau said.

An ENSO-neutral phenomenon pertains to weather conditions that are neither labeled as El Niño nor La Niña, Pagasa said in a previous statement.

Hence, Pagasa advised the public to take precautionary measures to mitigate the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon.

In a post on social media, Pagasa said that Filipinos must stay updated on climate advisories, cooperate on local El Niño measures, fix and report water leaks, and conserve water.

Earlier, the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) warned of an impending dry spell brought by the effects of a strong El Niño, which may affect up to 65 provinces in the country.

“By [the] end of May, there would be 77 percent of the provinces of the country will have potential for drought, that would be 65 provinces and seven percent potential for dry spells or around six provinces,” DOST Chief Renato Solidum Jr. said.

In response, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. revived the Task Force El Niño given the impending dry spell, which is seen to impact the country’s agriculture sector.