Five elections in 2024 that will shape the global order

This file combination of pictures created on February 16, 2022 shows Former US President Donald Trump during a visit to the border wall near Pharr, Texas on June 30, 2021 and US President Joe Biden during a visit to Germanna Community College in Culpeper, Virginia, on February 10, 2022. – If you think you’ve seen this movie before, it’s because you have — except the second time will be even more nerve-racking. Yes, world: get ready for Biden vs Trump 2. That’s a potential takeaway from the scandal embroiling Donald Trump over his alleged hoarding of secret government documents almost two years after losing reelection to Joe Biden. AFP FILE PHOTO

PARIS — Could Donald Trump make a comeback? Will anyone in Russia challenge Vladimir Putin?

With half the world heading to the polls in 2024, and some 30 countries electing a president, here are five key elections to watch:

Trump-Biden rematch?

On November 5, tens of millions of Americans will choose a president in a contest which could keep incumbent Joe Biden in power until the age of 86.

Poll after poll shows that a majority of voters think the gaffe-prone Democrat is too old to be commander-in-chief, despite his likely rival, ex-president Donald Trump making similar slip-ups at 77.

Disinformation looks set to be a feature of the campaign, a hangover from the last foul-tempered contest which ended with Trump supporters storming the US Capitol to try to halt the certification of Biden’s victory.

Trump goes into the Republican party nomination contest the clear favourite, despite multiple criminal trials hanging over him.

Biden’s campaign suffered another blow after the Republican-led House of Representatives voted in December to open a formal impeachment inquiry into whether he profited unduly from his son’s foreign business deals while he was vice-president under Barack Obama.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual press conference in Moscow, Russia December 14, 2023. Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool via REUTERS

Putin eyes six more years

A newly-confident Russian President Vladimir Putin, energised by his troops’ success in holding their positions in Ukraine two years into the war, is hoping to extend his 24-year rule by another six years in March elections.

On December 8 he announced he is running for a fifth term, which would keep him in power until 2030.

In 2020 he had the constitution amended to allow him to theoretically stay in power until 2036, which could potentially see him rule for longer than Joseph Stalin.

With the war in Ukraine used to lock up or silence dissenters and opponents, there is little chance of anyone standing in his way.

His long-time nemesis Alexei Navalny is serving a 19-year jail sentence.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets supporters as he arrives at the Lotte hotel in New York City, New York, U.S., June 20, 2023. REUTERS FILE PHOTO

Modi’s great power play

Nearly one billion Indians will be called on to vote in April-May when the world’s most populous nation goes to the polls in an election in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his nationalist BJP party are seeking a third term.

Modi’s political career and success have been based on support from India’s one-billion-plus Hindus and, critics say, stoking enmity toward the country’s large Muslim minority.

Despite a crackdown on civil liberties on his watch, he goes into the vote the clear favourite, with his supporters crediting him with boosting his country’s standing on the global stage.

Photo from the website of the European Parliament

EU test for populists

The world’s largest transnational poll in June will see more than 400 million people eligible to vote in the European Parliament election.

The vote will be a test of support for right-wing populists, who have the wind in their sails after the victory of Geert Wilders‘ anti-Islam, anti-EU PVV Freedom Party in November’s Dutch elections and last year’s win for Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy.

Brussels can take heart however from Poland, where former European Council president Donald Tusk has returned to power on a solidly pro-EU platform.

A combination picture shows Mexican Senator Xochitl Galvez (L) after she registered for the Frente Amplio por Mexico opposition alliance’s candidacy for the 2024 presidential election, in Mexico City, Mexico July 4, 2023, and outgoing Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum as she registers as a candidate to pursue the ruling MORENA party’s candidacy for the 2024 presidential election, in Mexico City, Mexico June 16, 2023. REUTERS FILE PHOTO

First Mexican woman president?

A leftist former mayor of the capital and a businesswoman with Indigenous roots are both vying to make history in Mexico in June by becoming the first woman president of a country with a tradition of machismo.

Former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is running on behalf of outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Morena party.

Her outspoken opponent Xochitl Galvez has been selected to represent an opposition coalition, the Broad Front for Mexico.