Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a rally in Reno, Nevada, U.S. December 17, 2023. REUTERS FILE PHOTO
WEST PALM BEACH, Florida — Former President Donald Trump’s campaign team projects he could formally clinch the Republican presidential nomination by March 19, given his lead in polls in the early voting states, a senior campaign official said on Monday.
The team believes Trump is on track to win 1,478 delegates by then, based on a mix of public and internal polls, said the official, who requested anonymity to discuss the campaign.
That would be more than enough delegates needed to win a majority of the total of 2,429 delegates who will select a nominee at the Republican National Convention, set for July in Milwaukee.
During the last competitive Republican presidential primary, in 2016, Trump did not formally win the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination until late May.
Trump holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary ahead of the 2024 White House race. A Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll completed last week showed 61% of self-identified Republicans said they would vote for the former president in the primary.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, his closest rivals, were each backed by 11% of self-identified Republicans.
Both Haley and DeSantis have performed significantly better in some state-level polls, though neither has come close to eclipsing Trump.
Neither the DeSantis nor Haley campaigns immediately responded to a request for comment, though both have said they are in the race for the long haul and have a good shot at beating Trump as the field consolidates.
Iowa kicks off the nominating process on Jan. 15, with New Hampshire’s primary eight days later. Trump’s campaign team projects he will win 19 of Iowa’s 40 available delegates, the official said.
Florida, the home base of both Trump and DeSantis, is among the states which have their primary election on March 19.
By the end of that day, 36 states and territories will have had their primary contest, including 16 on March 5, which is known as “Super Tuesday”.
The Trump campaign official said the projection was an estimate, particularly since there has been no reliable polling yet in some of the states and territories in play.
The official added that, in a bullish scenario, the Trump campaign believes it could mathematically wrap up the nomination as early as March 12, when Republican voters in Washington state, Georgia and a slew of other states will go to the polls.