Stronger El Niño phenomenon in 2024 threatens 65 provinces — DOST

Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. of the Department of Science and technology. File photo / Joseph Vidal of Senate PRIB

MANILA, Philippines — The Department of Science and Technology warned on Tuesday that 65 provinces in the Philippines may experience drought by May 2024 due to the effects of a stronger El Niño phenomenon.

According to Science and Techonlogy Secretary Renato Solidum Jr., some of the effects of the El Niño are already being felt in some parts of the country.

“The effects of El Niño are already felt and have been experienced in some areas in the country, and this is characterized by the reduction of rainfall up to 80 percent, which led to dry conditions or dry spells,” Solidum said.

The DOST chief also said that by May 2024, 77 percent of provinces in the country may experience drought, and seven percent may experience dry spells.

“By end of May, there would be 77 percent of the provinces of the country will have potential for drought, that would be 65 provinces and seven percent potential for dry spells or around six provinces,” he added.

Droughts can last for months or even years, and they often result in a deficiency of water resources, such as rivers, lakes, and groundwater, while dry spells are shorter in duration compared to droughts. They can last from a few weeks to a few months.

Meanwhile, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said in its advisory, an El Niño phenomenon is present in the tropical Pacific region, and is projected to strengthen in the following months.

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“A strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific and further intensified, nearing its peak in the coming months, as sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have reached more than 1.5⁰C,” it said on December 6.

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“Majority of global climate models suggest that El Niño will likely persist until the second quarter of 2024,” Pagasa added.