“The probability of getting hit by debris from a North Korean rocket is like winning the lottery,” Robredo said here on Thursday.
And that’s the reason, he said, why the government is not shooing people away from the coastlines where they will surely flock starting Thursday to watch for the fall of debris from the North Korean rocket.
The five-day window announced by North Korea for the launch opened Thursday. But if the North Koreans had been ready on Thursday, bad weather forced the cancellation of the launch.
Not to disrupt lives
Information obtained by the Philippine government showed that the launch could take place in the morning between April 12 and April 16, between 6 a.m. and noon.
“That means we should be alert only during those hours,” Robredo said. “We don’t want to disrupt the people’s lives any more than necessary,” he said.
Robredo was here to attend the opening ceremonies of the 9th International Igorot Consultation at the Baguio Country Club.
National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) Executive Director Benito Ramos did not heave a sigh of relief after North Korea failed to launch the rocket.
But as noon struck on Thursday, his agency lifted the no-fly, no-sail rule in northeastern Luzon for the rest of the day.
The rule goes into effect again at the same hours Friday until after the launch, any day till Monday.
“Fishermen can resume their activities until 5 a.m. [Friday]. We will be on alert again starting 6 a.m. [Friday],” Ramos told reporters.
“I cannot feel relieved,” Ramos said. “Good for you you can go home later. I will stay put here. I will not be able to sleep again tonight.”
At around 9:30 a.m. Ramos received advice from military intelligence that the rocket launch was “imminent, could be within the hour,” quoting sources from the United States and Japan.
Just before noon, however, Ramos again received advice from military intelligence, based on information from the US Pacific Command, that the launch will likely to come Friday, “as [the] weather forecast [for Friday]” was “very favorable.”
Malacañang believes the government can quickly respond to any report of falling debris. Presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda told reporters that the three-hour window for reaction estimated by the NDRRMC is “sufficient time” for the government to determine where the debris will fall.
Lacierda assured the public that the government planned how to respond to falling rocket debris even before it advised people to just wait and pray.
The North Korean rocket launch also came up in discussions between President Benigno Aquino III and visiting Australian Governor General Quentin Bryce.
Defying ‘no-sail’ order
Lacierda said the President mentioned the Philippine watch in his talk with Bryce in Malacañang on Thursday, but the discussions focused on trade, diplomatic and security relations between Australia and the Philippines and a possible state visit by Mr. Aquino to Australia later this year.
In Cagayan, the danger of getting hit by rocket debris has not prevented fishermen in the northern coastal towns of the province from going out to sea, defying a government declaration of the area a “no-sail” zone.
Local officials in Buguey, Santa Ana and Gonzaga, three Cagayan towns expecting falling debris from the rocket, told the Inquirer that local fishermen were reported to have been seen heading off to sea at dawn Thursday.
“We cannot stop them. They believe the debris will fall far from where they say they will be fishing,” Gonzaga Mayor Carlito Pentecostes Jr. said, quoting village officials in his town.
As he could not stop fishermen from the town’s 11 coastal villages from plying their trade, he said, the best he could do was to warn them of the danger from debris falling from the rocket launch.
In Buguey town, fishermen were not barred from heading out to sea because local officials received no instructions from higher authorities, according to Mayor Licerio Antiporda III.
Mayor Darwin Tobias of Santa Ana said the debris scare did not prevent fishermen in his town from going to sea. Tobias said the fishermen believed that rocket parts falling in their fishing grounds was remote.
Coast Guard appeals
But the Philippine Coast Guard on Thursday renewed its appeal to fishermen in the northeastern side of the country to stay close to the shore until Monday next week.
There is a possibility that debris from the rocket, if launched, would fall in the northeastern side of the Philippines, the Coast Guard said.
“We are reiterating our appeal to our fishermen to stay within the 15 kilometers of the municipal waters,” Lt. Cmdr. Algier Ricafrente, Coast Guard spokesperson, told reporters.
Ricafrente said local governments would be responsible for the monitoring of fishermen’s movements in their areas.
He said two Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources vessels manned by Coast Guard personnel were deployed to the danger zone. One is at Port Irene in Cagayan and the other is somewhere in the waters off Bicol Region.
In that region, disaster officials deployed a four-member quick-reaction team to the island-province of Catanduanes to retrieve rocket debris that may fall there.
Catanduanes Governor Joseph Cua also suspended on Thursday the operation of the ferry MV Calixta, owned by his family, as a precaution. The ferry operates between Tabaco City in Albay and San Andres in Catanduanes.
Another ferry, the MV Eugenia, which plies the Tabaco-Virac route, continued to run services on Thursday.
Other quick-reaction teams were formed in Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur and they were ready on Thursday to deploy should rocket debris be reported coming down.
The teams had orders to retrieve the debris and to take them to the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute to test for radioactivity.
In Baguio, Robredo said the government was informed about fishermen going to sea on Thursday morning despite the warnings.
But the government, he said, decided that disrupting the fishermen’s work may not be productive, as the state had only little information about the rocket launch.
Skylab experience
“This is like our experience with Skylab,” Robredo said.
The Skylab was a US satellite that drew global attention in 1979 when its reentry sparked fears about debris falling on populated areas.
The Philippines was also placed on alert, but no Skylab debris, which did not burn on reentry, fell in Philippine territory. Debris fell off Western Australia. Reports from Inquirer Northern Luzon, Inquirer Southern Luzon, Dona Z. Pazzibugan, Christine O. Avendaño and Jerome Aning