Political analyst predicts 3 main senatorial slates in 2013 polls

Vice President Jejomar Binay, Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar, and President Benigno Aquino III

A political analyst predicted three main senatorial slates to be fielded in 2013 by the Liberal Party (LP), United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) and the Nacionalista Party (NP).

“The LP move and [Vice President Jejomar] Binay’s PDP-Laban coalition [with former President Joseph Estrada] will define the 2013 electoral contest. By no means, however, are these two the only players. There is still the formidable NP led by Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar who reportedly handed over the reins to Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. This party keeps its cards close to its chest but quietly organizes on a nationwide scale,” Ramon Casiple said on his blog.

Raiding Lakas

Casiple, executive director of the Quezon City-based Institute for Political and Economic Reforms, said the ruling LP triggered the election season when it undertook a series of “high profile party raiding,” primarily from the ranks of the weakening Lakas-Kampi-CMD that was dominant during the Arroyo administration.

Ebdanes join LP

One of the recent examples is the switch to the LP of the father and son team, Governor Hermogenes Ebdane and newly-elected 2nd district Representative Omar Ebdane in Zambales province, Casiple said.

Casiple said it was an “irony” that an administration coalition would be fielding separate senatorial slates but he said there was a reason for this.

“The principal reason for these developments and scenario is the early poll positioning for the 2016 presidential elections. The President has announced his decision to forgo any political move to prolong himself in power and will definitely step down in 2016. It thereby precipitated the early scramble of presidential aspirants to maneuver in the 2013 elections and even before to capture strategic resources such as financing, local alliances, and campaign infrastructure and capabilities,” Casiple said.

Hunting ground

He said the 2013 elections were a hunting ground for the 2016 elections. “No presidential aspirant can ignore its importance. Nor can politicians, whether national or local, ignore the implications of the 2013 elections for the 2016 elections and on their own political fortunes. The political hunting season is open,” he added.

Casiple said new parties such as the Centrist Democratic Party (CDP), and left-leaning parties such as the Akbayan Citizens’ Action Party and Bayan Muna might also make their influence felt in the political arena as the election season progressed.

He said the CDP was challenging the leadership of Lakas, which is still considered the political opposition and still led by former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, while Akbayan continued to support the administration.

Bayan Muna “plays the independent game” although it allied with Villar’s NP during the 2010 elections, Casiple said. Jerome Aning

Originally posted: 11:44 pm | Tuesday, April 10th, 2012