Expert sees hike in COVID-19 cases
MIXED CROWD | People with mask and no mask pay respects to their departed loved ones in Valenzuela Public Cemetery, Valenzuela City, on All Saints’ Day. (Photo by GRIG C. MONTEGRANDE / Philippine Daily Inquirer)
MANILA, Philippines —Although daily COVID-19 infections nationwide have been going down in the past few days, a public health reform advocate has warned that the trend may be reversed starting this month until December by the new masking rule, increased mobility during “Undas” and crowding at evacuation centers due to Severe Tropical Storm Paeng (international name: Nalgae).
Based on the Department of Health (DOH) COVID-19 Tracker, the country logged 1,099 new cases on Monday. Total active infections are also declining, with 20,227 people currently infected, bringing the national case tally to 4,004,465.
‘Unreported’
Dr. Tony Leachon, former public health adviser to the government, told the Inquirer on Tuesday that while it was “heartening to see” COVID-19 numbers decreasing in the past few days, the cases “might be underreported” since rapid antigen tests — the cheapest and most accessible COVID-19 test kit — were not part of the official tally.
The positivity rate, he added, “was still high” at 10 percent despite declining in past weeks, based on DOH data. The World Health Organization has set a benchmark of below 5 percent for at least two weeks to indicate that virus transmission is under control.
Leachon said that he expected cases at the national level to climb in the middle of this month to December, most likely hovering around 5,000 to 10,000, due to a confluence of factors: public gatherings during “Undas” and new masking rules, the start of in-person classes, lack of physical distancing at evacuation centers, waning immunity and low booster rate, on top of newer, more infectious COVID-19 strains like XBC and XBB.
His projection was lower compared to the DOH’s, which said that cases may top 18,000 daily by Nov. 15 if people ignore minimum public health standards such as wearing masks, maintaining physical distancing, and practicing handwashing.
“I enjoin the public to wear face masks despite loosening up of restrictions and to boost up. The pandemic is not yet over,” Leachon said.
The Marcos administration has been gradually relaxing COVID-19 curbs. Earlier this week, it made the wearing of masks in indoor spaces voluntary, ahead of the long weekend due to the observance of All Saints’ Day and All Souls’ Day as well as the full implementation of in-person classes in public schools effective this month.
