Escalation of Metro Manila COVID risk to moderate is unlikely at this time — Salvana
MANILA, Philippines — It is unlikely that Metro Manila will be elevated to a moderate risk classification for COVID-19 soon despite the steady increase in infections based on current trends, an infectious disease expert said Monday.
Dr. Edsel Salvana, a member of the Department of Health’s (DOH) technical advisory group, said Metro Manila is still far from reaching the parameters for moderate risk classification.
He said that the region’s average daily attack rate (ADAR) is still “a little bit above” 1 out of 100,000 cases, and the ADAR must be at least 6 out of 100,000 to qualify for a moderate risk classification.
The hospital utilization rate of Metro Manila is still likewise in the “low 20s” when it should be 50% or above for moderate risk.
“At this point, I don’t think so kasi malayo tayo doon sa parameters na ginagamit ng DOH in terms of moving from low risk to moderate risk,” Salvana said in a public briefing when asked if he thought Metro Manila would be escalated to moderate risk soon.
(We’re far from the parameters used by DOH in terms of moving from low risk to moderate risk.)
Citing the World Health Organization (WHO), Salvana said Metro Manila should have at least 800 COVID-19 infections daily in the next two weeks before it can be raised to moderate risk.
On Sunday, the DOH recorded 612 new infections of COVID-19 nationwide, bringing the number of active cases to 4,529.
He also pointed out that while the number of cases increases, the health care capacity is “still manageable.”
Independent pandemic monitor Octa Research earlier said that infections in Metro Manila could cross the “moderate risk” threshold in the coming weeks.
