MANILA, Philippines — COVID-19 infections in Metro Manila may increase to as much as 400 to 500 cases a day by the end of June, based on current trends of transmission, independent pandemic monitor Octa Research group said Tuesday.
Octa Research’s Dr. Guido David said this is based on the latest trends of COVID-19 transmission in the region, where cases per day increased by 53% compared to last week, and the reproduction number is at 1.59.
David also pointed out that the positivity rate in Metro Manila is also increasing, which is now at 2.7%, and the number of cases in Metro Manila recorded on Monday was at 188.
“Ang projection namin by end of June baka umabot na siya ng 400 to 500 a day so medyo bumibilis ‘yung pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso kasi dati nasa mga 65 cases lang tayo per day,” David said in a public briefing.
(We project that cases will reach 400 to 500 a day by the end of June so the increase in the numbers is accelerating because we only had about 65 cases per day.)
As for the rest of the country, a “low thousand cases per day” is possible, David said, based on the current trends.
He, however, clarified that these are only initial projections and their research group will recalibrate once trends change.
“Possible pa rin ‘yan, ‘yung low thousand cases per day across the country. We will recalibrate kung magbago ‘yung trends na nakikita natin kasi may possibility na bumilis pa ‘yung pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso,” David said.
(That’s still possible, the low thousand cases per day across the country. We will recalibrate our projections once the trends change because there is still a possibility that the rise in cases will further accelerate.)
“Hopefully, hindi na siya umabot ng 1,000 cases per day sa Metro Manila pero may possibility pa rin ‘yan,” he added.
(Hopefully, cases in Metro Manila will not reach 1,000 per day but that’s still a possibility.)
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