Octa does not foresee potential surge as high as Omicron spike in January

MANILA, Philippines — Should there be a COVID-19 case surge, it will not be as high as the Omicron case spike that was experienced in January, independent analytics group Octa Research said Monday.

Octa Research fellow Guido David explained that if subvariants will not enter and spread in the country, COVID-19 cases will remain at around 100 to 200. Otherwise, infections may increase around thousands.

“Kung may panibagong subvariant na makapasok at mag-cause ng increase, definitely, tataas ‘yan tulad ng nakita natin sa South Africa. We can have a few thousand cases,” he said in a Laging Handa public briefing.

(If there will be a new subvariant which will cause an increase, definitely, it will increase like what we are seeing in South Africa. We can have a few thousand cases.)

“Although, we don’t foresee na ‘yung magiging surge — kung magkakaroon ng surge — ay kasing lala ng January. It will be at a much lower rate at kaunti lang ang maho-hospitalize,” David added.

(Although, we don’t foresee that the surge — if there will be a surge — to be as high as January. It will be at a much lower rate and only a few will be hospitalized.)

The more transmissible Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 has been detected in Metro Manila and Puerto Princesa, the Department of Health said.

When the Omicron variant spread in January, the country’s COVID-19 cases reached around 30,000 a single day.

EDV