'Good sign:' OCTA says COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR drops to 4.69 | Inquirer News
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‘Good sign:’ OCTA says COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR drops to 4.69

/ 02:34 PM January 12, 2022
NCR COVID-19

(FIL) FULL CAPACITY As Metro Manila experiences a “severe outbreak” of COVID-19 cases, several hospitals declared that they had reached full capacity. —MARIANNE BERMUDEZ

MANILA, Philippines — The COVID-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) has dropped to 4.69, according to a fellow of the OCTA Research group, who added that a “decreasing reproduction number indicates that the trend is slowing down.”

According to OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David, the reproduction number in Metro Manila decreased to 4.69 as of January 8, 2022.

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“Reproduction number in the NCR decreased to 4.69. The reproduction number was at 6.16 on Jan 2. This is a good sign. Until then, let us stay safe…and follow best health practices,” he said in a tweet Wednesday.

The reproduction number refers to the average number of persons who can be potentially infected by the virus — the potential number of cases infected by a single positive case in a population susceptible to the infection.

David said the reproduction number in the nation’s capital “had been higher than 4 since December 30, 2021, when the outbreak in the NCR started.”

“A decreasing reproduction number indicates that the trend is slowing down. One way to think of this is a decreasing growth rate – cases are still rising but at a slower pace,” he explained.

Meanwhile, David said a timeline on when a peak in COVID-19 cases in NCR would happen is still uncertain.

“In past surges, a peak is always preceded by a decreasing reproduction number. Are we close to the peak in the NCR? Hopefully. Because the trends being observed are based on limited data, there is still uncertainty when the peak might happen,” he said.

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“Again, hopefully, sooner than later. Until then, let us continue to follow best health practices and wear good face masks in public,” he added.

On Tuesday, the Philippines logged 28,007 additional cases, pushing the number of active COVID-19 infections to 181,016.

/MUF

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