Omicron cases seen topping Delta numbers

MANILA, Philippines — The Department of Health (DOH) on Tuesday said the current hikes in the number of COVID-19 cases being reported daily could surpass those recorded during the surge triggered by the Delta variant of the coronavirus last year as the Omicron variant suspected of causing the rise in the numbers was more contagious.

“For now, we have initial projections which state that at the end of January, cases will peak,” Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said in an interview with CNN Philippines.

She did not disclose figures, saying they were just “rough estimates” and the DOH was still finalizing the numbers as “assumptions are still not very tight and complete.”

“What I can give the public as an information right now would be that within initial estimates, the assumption would be based on the calculations that Omicron is eight times more transmissible than Delta, and that the peak will happen by the end of January,” Vergeire said.

“As to the numbers I won’t give it now because it might mislead people… [but] it will be more than the numbers that we saw during the Delta peak,” she said.

The highest number of COVID-19 cases recorded in a day during the Delta surge was 26,303 on Sept. 11, 2021.

New cases exceed 5,000

The DOH on Tuesday reported 5,434 new COVID-19 cases, higher than the 4,084 reported on Monday. The last time more than 5,000 cases were recorded was on Oct. 24, 2021, when 5,279 new infections were reported.

Vergeire earlier said that there was a high possibility of local transmission of the Omicron variant, following the sharp increase in cases. She said, however, that “definitive” evidence of this could only be established through whole-genome sequencing of sample specimen.

Guido David, a fellow of the independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research group, said on Twitter on Tuesday that Metro Manila’s hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 had increased to 29 percent on Jan. 2 from 17 percent on Dec. 26, 2021.

The intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy for COVID-19 in Metro Manila also increased from 21 percent to 29 percent during the same period.

“Hospital bed occupancy seems to be increasing at a faster rate compared to ICU occupancy. Both hospital bed occupancy and ICU occupancy are still at a very low level at this time,” David said.

Kidney hospital situation

The National Kidney and Transplant Institute (NKTI) only had six to nine COVID-19 patients from Dec. 19 to Dec. 27 last year, according to the hospital’s executive director Dr. Rose Marie Liquete.

From Dec. 28 to Dec. 30, around 10 to 11 patients were admitted but on Jan. 1, the number increased to 16, 25 the next day and 33 a day later, resulting in a total of 61 COVID-19 patients.

“This number (61 patients) is worrying, it almost doubled,” Liquete told the Inquirer.

The hospital had 34 healthcare workers who also were infected and if that number were added, the NKTI could count almost 100 COVID-19 patients, she said.

The NKTI announced on Tuesday that it would temporarily close its outpatient services starting Jan. 7 “following another surge of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila” and the lack of healthcare workers.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Liquete said the NKTI had already exceeded its 62-bed capacity, prompting the hospital to open another unit with 20 beds.

There was also an increase in the number of confirmed and suspected COVID-19 cases at the nearby East Avenue Medical Center.

Hospital spokesperson Lorena Perdigon said 30 out of 171 patients were confirmed to have been infected with the coronavirus.

“Other [patients] are either suspect or probable cases [of COVID-19],” she told the Inquirer, adding that these patients were showing moderate to critical symptoms.

Over at Tala

The Caloocan City-based Dr. Jose N. Rodriguez Memorial Hospital (Tala Hospital) has a total of 250 COVID-19 patients.

Dr. Fritz Famaran, the hospital’s director, told the Inquirer that an average of 20 to 25 patients were being admitted daily since Monday.

Famaran said that 250 beds were already occupied out of the 520 that were allocated for COVID-19 patients.

According to Tuesday’s DOH case bulletin, the positivity rate was 26.5 percent based on 25,704 people who were tested on Sunday.

The report did not include data from 16 laboratories that failed to submit their test reports.

Nonreporting labs

Based on data in the last 14 days, the 16 nonreporting labs accounted for an average of 2.1 percent of samples tested and 1.8 percent of positive individuals, the DOH said.

About 99 percent of the new cases were reported within the last two weeks and the majority, or 71 percent, were from Metro Manila. The other large numbers of cases came from Calabarzon and Central Luzon.

With the 5,434 new infections, the country’s total caseload was now 2,861,119.

Of the 29,809 active cases, 24,026 are mild, 889 asymptomatic, 3,020 moderate, 1,546 severe and 328 critical.

The DOH reported 611 recoveries, which brought the total number of survivors of the severe respiratory disease to 2,779,706.

The 18 COVID-19 fatalities raised the death toll to 51,604. However, only two deaths were reported this month and rest occurred between July and December last year but were only reported on Tuesday due to late encoding in COVIDKAYA case collection system.