Sans Omicron, OCTA sees 7-day average of 49 COVID-19 cases in NCR by end December

SAFE COMMUTE A mother ensures that she and her child are masked as they take a jeepney in Marikina City. While COVID-19 cases are dropping in Metro Manila, health officials still urge the public to continue observing health protocols to stop another infection surge. —LYN RILLON

MANILA, Philippines — Private research group OCTA Research has projected a seven-day average of 49 COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila by the end of December without the presence of the Omicron variant.

OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said the National Capital Region’s (NCR) current seven-day average is 85 new COVID-19 cases, the lowest since March 2020.

“These are the projections that we’re seeing if the trends continue—of course, this assumes no new variant—and we’re seeing that you know, we might hit less than 50 per day in the NCR before the end of the year,” David said during the Go Negosyo public-private sector dialogue on Wednesday.

“Of course, we might not hit these projections but we don’t foresee any increase in cases. We might plateau. So, again, there are many scenarios but the outlook is very positive,” he added, attributing the declining COVID infections to vaccination.

However, if Omicron enters the Philippines this day, COVID-19 cases in the NCR may balloon to almost 800 per day by the end of January next year.

The reproduction number, meanwhile, will increase to 1.5 in January from the 0.37 recorded on December 14, David noted, adding that the projection is based on current data and is subject to change.

The reproduction number is the average number of persons being infected by one positive case. The ideal reproduction number should be less than one to indicate a slower spread of the virus, health experts say.

“The projection is based on a possible increase of the reproduction number in the NCR which currently is at around 0.37 to around 1.5, and why 1.5? Because again this is based on vaccinations, the level of vaccinations will limit the increase in the reproduction number,” David said.

“How does a 1.5 reproduction number look like? Assuming we have the Omicron starts spreading today… By the end of January it will be at less than 800 cases per day with the reproduction number of 1.5,” he explained.

Should projections happen, David said that it will be relatively mild compared to previous surges that hit Metro Manila.

“Is this catastrophic? No, this is not. In fact, it is relatively mild if we compare it with the other surges we had in the past where we reached 5,000 cases,” David assured.

Currently, Metro Manila is at “very low risk” for COVID-19, OCTA said.

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