FILE PHOTO: Persons identified for contact tracing in connection to COVID-19 patients undergo swabbing procedures inside UP-Philippine General Hospital, Manila. INQUIRER PHOTO/LYN RILLON
MANILA, Philippines — New COVID-19 infections fell for a fifth straight day on Tuesday and the Department of Health (DOH) is optimistic that Metro Manila may see active cases — or those people still sick of the virus — fall to 1,035 by Dec. 15 if current mobility restrictions and health system capabilities are kept in place.
The DOH reported that new daily cases slid to 2,303, the lowest since March 2. This raised the country’s total case tally to 2,792,656.
An additional 4,677 recoveries also brought the total number of survivors to 2,708,466.
The death toll rose to 43,404, of which 128 were new fatalities.
The positivity rate was at 6.8 percent after 2,018 individuals were found positive for the virus out of the 29,679 tested. According to the World Health Organization, a positivity rate of less than 5 percent indicates that COVID-19 is under control in a country.
In an online briefing on Tuesday, Director Alethea De Guzman of the DOH’s epidemiology bureau said the case decline continued in Metro Manila as daily infections from Oct. 26 to Nov. 1 eased by 14 percent to an average of 770.
However, this was a marked slowdown from previous weeks’ average drop in daily cases of as much as 36 percent.
Caution
Despite the continued improvement, the government will be cautious in deciding on whether or not to lower the alert level in Metro Manila and the pandemic task force will look at the situation on the ground aside from the improving COVID-19 numbers, infectious disease expert Edsel Salvana said on Tuesday.
The independent analytics group OCTA Research has supported the proposal of the private sector to place Metro Manila under the more relaxed alert level 2 in the second half of November to allow businesses to accept more customers, citing the low-risk classification of the capital region and its high vaccination rate.
Salvana, the government’s pandemic adviser, said OCTA based this only on the numbers and the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) would have to make a deeper analysis and go beyond the data.
“We have to look at the extent of granular lockdowns in the different [local governments] before we consider whether to raise, lower or maintain [the alert level],” he said in a Malacañang briefing.
Salvaña added that the task force needed to coordinate with the local governments to make sure it would be safe to relax restrictions.
“Our [Metro Manila] mayors really look at how people are behaving. It’s really important that we work with the local governments so that we know the situation on the ground,” he said.
“It’s important to move cautiously. You could not just say ‘let’s open that up.’ We need to be very careful,” he said.
While the government’s goal was a safe reopening of the economy, he noted that this has to be balanced with concerns about preventing a spike in cases.
Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said the government also expected more gatherings toward Christmas and this raised the possibility that COVID-19 cases could increase.
Dr. Maricar Limpin, president of the Philippine College of Physicians and co-convener of the Healthcare Professionals Alliance Against COVID-19, also noted that while there was now less pressure on hospitals, the country “cannot ease up drastically as we are seeing an upward trend globally.”
“There is definitely a decline [in cases]. But we need to emphasize that the virus is still here and thus, the need to continue adhering to the minimum health standards to avoid an increase in COVID-19 cases,” Limpin told the Inquirer.
Appeal
Businesses have been pushing for a downgrade of Metro Manila to alert level 2 in time for an expected surge in demand for consumer products and services until December.
The Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) on Tuesday said it supported the proposal of Presidential Adviser for Entrepreneurship Joey Concepcion to place Metro Manila under alert level 2 by Nov. 15.
“The easing of restriction to alert level 2, which will allow most businesses to operate, and restaurants to increase the capacity of allowed diners, is a good move, especially now as we enter the Christmas season and there is a surge in consumer spending,” PCCI president Benedicto Yujuico said in a statement.
Metro Manila is under alert level 3, which means establishments can operate at only 30-percent indoor capacity for fully vaccinated customers and 50 percent of their capacity outdoors.
“Increasing the capacity of public transport will also support the revitalization of business and the economy,” Yujuico added.
There is a policy that the government is considering relaxing—the need for face shields.
Roque said many people have asked the IATF to ease the face shield requirement since the COVID-19 situation in the country has improved.
While Salvana defended the use of a face shield as it provided protection to the eyes through which the coronavirus could enter, he agreed that since the COVID-19 risk was going down, the easing of the face shield requirement could be considered.