Raffy Tulfo SCREENGRAB FROM TULFO’S INSTAGRAM
MANILA, Philippines — Broadcaster Raffy Tulfo topped the list of a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey released on Friday on possible senatorial candidates who are likely to win if elections were held today.
It was the second survey Tulfo topped after a poll conducted from Sept. 6 to Sept. 11 by Pulse Asia, which showed him garnering 55.2 percent of that survey’s respondents.
The SWS survey was conducted from September 12-16, three weeks before the October 8 deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacy (COC). It was commissioned by Stratbase ADR Institute Inc., based on a “question item” and a list of candidates that the research group presented to SWS.
Incumbents, exes
The question, stated both in Filipino and in English, read: “If elections were to take place today, whom would you most probably vote for as senators of the Philippines? You can mention up to 12 names.”
SWS said its survey had a base of total registered voters—numbering 63,364,932 as of Sept. 11, as shown by the latest data of the Commission on Elections.
Tulfo, who said he would run as an independent when he filed his COC on October 2, got 57 percent of the votes.
The rest of the “Magic 12” list includes five incumbent senators (Juan Miguel Zubiri, Francis Pangilinan, Risa Hontiveros, Sherwin Gatchalian and Richard Gordon) and four former senators (Francis Escudero, Loren Legarda, Alan Peter Cayetano, and Jinggoy Estrada).
Following Tulfo at second, third, and fourth places were Escudero, currently Sorsogon governor; Legarda, a deputy House speaker representing Antique province; and recently resigned Public Works Secretary Mark Villar. All three were in a near-tie with each having 41 percent of the votes.
The others in the Top 12 are Cayetano, currently Taguig-Pateros congressman (5th, 38 percent); Senate Majority Leader Zubiri (6th, 34 percent); Estrada (7th, 29 percent); Pangilinan (8th, 28 percent); TV host Willie Revillame (9th, 25 percent); Hontiveros (10th, 25 percent); Gatchalian (11th, 21 percent); and Gordon (12th, 21 percent).
Pangilinan has been chosen as the running mate of Vice President Leni Robredo in the Palace race, although he has expressed willingness to assume another role amid continuing political negotiations before the Nov. 15 deadline for the substitution of candidates.
Revillame announced on October 7 that he would not run in next year’s elections.
‘Face-to-face’
The nationwide poll was conducted using face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adults aged 18 years old and above— at 300 each in Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.
“Face-to-face is the standard interviewing method for [SWS],” SWS said in its survey, adding that the only exceptions were early in the pandemic when it conducted mobile phone interviews, before resuming face-to-face field operations in November 2020.
The survey had a sampling margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percent for national percentages and plus-or-minus 6 percent for Metro Manila, Luzon outside the capital region, Visayas and Mindanao. —INQUIRER RESEARCH