OCTA sees reproduction number of COVID-19 infections in NCR ‘low’ at 0.61

FILE PHOTO: This undated transmission electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2, also known as novel coronavirus, the virus that causes COVID-19, isolated from a patient in the U.S. NIAID-RML/Handout via REUTERS.

MANILA, Philippines — The transmission of COVID-19 in Metro Manila has slowed, a fellow of OCTA Research revealed on Saturday.

OCTA fellow Prof. Guido David, in a tweet, said the reproduction number (R0) in the National Capital Region (NCR) from October 2-8 is now down to 0.61, lower than 0.83 from September 25 to October 1.

An R0 (pronounced as r-naught) indicates how infectious a disease is.

For instance, an R0 of 1 means that for each carrier transmits the virus to one person. If the R0 is less than 1 — such as the current number of Metro Manila — each existing infection would cause less than one new infection, which means that the virus is in decline.

“NCR is moderate per our metrics,” David said.

The number of new cases per day in Metro Manila is also in decline, according to OCTA.

The cases in NCR from October 2-8 are now at 2,140, lower compared to 3,627 cases from September 25 to October 1, according to OCTA.

OCTA also said the positivity rate also declined to 13 percent from 17 percent last week.

The Department of Health earlier said that the daily new coronavirus infections in NCR could decrease to just 1,100 by November.

Metrics for NCR as of 10.8.21. 7-day average 2140, reproduction number 0.61, ADAR 15, positivity rate 13%, HCUR 53%. NCR is moderate per our metrics. @dzbb @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @allangatus @cnnphilippines @News5PH @NewsRmn @dzbbsamnielsen @haydeesampang @dwiz882 @PHINewsNet1 pic.twitter.com/QfDMGBVwgL

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) October 9, 2021

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