OCTA: COVID-19 reproduction in NCR slightly dips but trend still uncertain

(FILE) Barriers have been set up in several villages in Pasay City to prohibit non-residents from going in and out of these communities as Metro Manila undergoes another round of lockdown to contain the spread of COVID-19. —MARIANNE BERMUDEZ

MANILA, Philippines — Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction number has slightly decreased, but the trend remains uncertain as of this point, the OCTA Research group said Wednesday.

In OCTA’s latest monitoring report posted on Twitter by its fellow Guido David, the group said the COVID-19 reproduction number in Metro Manila decreased to 1.74 as of August 10, compared to 1.80 two days before.

“While this is a welcome development, it is too early to determine if this is the start of a new trend. A change in direction of the reproduction number always carries the most uncertainty, and the trend should be clearer within the next few days,” the independent monitoring group said.

Reproduction number in the NCR decreased to 1.74, but it is too early to say if this trend will continue. ICU occupancy is at 67% and may reach 70% before August 15, 2021. OCTA Covid-19 Report for the NCR August 11, 2021. pic.twitter.com/npDddtDrKI

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) August 11, 2021

Reproduction number is the average number of new cases estimated to stem from a single case.

According to OCTA, Metro Manila reported 2,168 new COVID-19 cases on August 10, “much lower” than the 2,848 cases reported three days prior. It added that the most recent seven-day average of new cases in the region was at 2,297, an increase of 43 percent from the previous week.

“Preliminary projections show that the seven-day average may not exceed 2,500 new cases per day. If the early projections turn out to be correct, this means that surge capacities in terms of testing and hospital utilization might not be breached,” the group noted.

The most current incidence rate of average daily attack rate in Metro Manila is 16.45 per 100,000 per day, classified as high risk.

Meanwhile, OCTA Research added that the seven-day positivity rate in Metro Manila was at 16 percent. Hospital bed occupancy likewise increased to 57 percent while ICU occupancy increased to 67 percent.

“Over the past seven days, ICU utilization increased by an average of 22 occupied ICUs per day. Based on this trend, ICUs in the NCR will reach 70 percent occupancy before August 15,” said OCTA.

Metro Manila was placed under enhanced community quarantine, the strictest quarantine status, from August 6 to 20 to prevent the further spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19.

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