PAGASA PHOTO
MANILA, Philippines — Tropical Depression Fabian maintained its strength and did not show any potential diversion from its forecast track, the latest bulletin from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) showed.
Pagasa said on Friday night that Fabian was last seen 1,395 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon, packing maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers (kph) per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 55 kph.
It is moving northward at a speed of 15 kph.
While strong winds protrude up to 200 kilometers away from Fabian’s center, Pagasa still does not expect the cyclone to make landfall. Latest forecast track showed that by Saturday night, Fabian may move along the eastern border of the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR), during which it would have intensified into a tropical storm already.
It would the slip back inside the PAR by Sunday night as it starts to move to the east, towards the northern border of the PAR.
By Monday, it would have intensified again as a severe tropical storm, but Pagasa’s cone of probability shows a wide scope which means it may still veer southeast and stay inside the PAR, or move northeast and target Japan’s southern islands.
If it stays on course with Pagasa’s prediction, it would move along the PAR borders and then be located 805 kilometers northeast of extreme Northern Luzon. On Wednesday it would be outside of PAR, as a typhoon-category cyclone.
Pagasa said that the raising of tropical cyclone wind signals are unlikely as Fabian would not directly affect the country. However, they repeated their earlier warning that the weather disturbance may intensify the southwest monsoon or habagat, and cause rains over a huge part of Luzon and Visayas,
“Fabian is unlikely to directly affect the weather condition and bring heavy rainfall in the country throughout the forecast period,” Pagasa said.
“However, its passage may enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring monsoon rains over Western Visayas, Mimaropa, Calabarzon, Metro Manila, Bataan, and Zambales beginning Sunday (18 July). A Weather Advisory on Southwest Monsoon may be issued within the next two days in relation to this development,” it added.