PH already at low risk classification for COVID-19 case trend — DOH

NO LETUP A health worker on Sunday prepares doses of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine for hundreds of residents at Emilio Jacinto Elementary School in Tondo, Manila. —MARIANNE BERMUDEZ

MANILA, Philippines — The country is already at low risk classification for COVID-19 case trend after recording a negative growth rate in cases and a lower average daily attack rate (ADAR), the Department of Health (DOH) said Thursday.

Data presented by Dr. Alethea De Guzman, OIC-Director of the DOH Epidemiology Bureau, showed the country recorded a negative nine percent growth rate in cases over the last two weeks, as compared to the 15 percent growth rate in the previous three to four weeks.

Meanwhile, the ADAR per 100,000 population in the last two weeks is at 5.42, lower than the 5.96 from the previous three to four weeks.

“Dahil negative ang ating two-week growth rate at ang ating ADAR ay naka-moderate risk na at 5.42, the risk classification nationally is already at low risk,” De Guzman told an online media forum. ADAR is considered high risk if it reaches seven per 100,000 population.

(Because of the negative two-week growth rate and because our ADAR is at 5.42 at moderate risk, the risk classification nationally is already at low risk.)

However, De Guzman said a growth rate ranging from a negative one to negative ten is still slim and is prone to another possible increase.

According to De Guzman, the country averaged 5,772 daily new cases from June 24 to 30, lower by around half of the 10,845 average cases during the peak from April 9 to 15.

Per region, Davao Region, Western Visayas, Soccsksargen, and Eastern Visayas are at high risk for COVID-19 after recording high growth rates and ADAR in the last two weeks.

Caraga and Central Visayas are at moderate risk, while the rest of the regions, including Metro Manila, are at low risk.

Table from DOH

De Guzman said the priority areas due to moderate to high-risk classification for COVID-19 case trend and high to critical risk for healthcare utilization (HCUR) and ICU utilization are now down to 21, compared to 30 to 40 areas being reported in the previous weeks.

Table from DOH

Luzon

All regions in Luzon are showing a general decline in cases, but Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, and Mimaropa are starting to exhibit an increase, according to De Guzman.

In Metro Manila, the case trend is plateauing after a slow decline in the past weeks. The capital region recorded 694 new daily COVID-19 cases from June 24 to 30, slightly higher than the 686 cases from June 17 to 23.

But in other areas in the NCR Plus, Laguna has shown another increase in cases, Cavite is exhibiting a plateau after an “erratic” trend, Bulacan’s cases continue to decrease, and Rizal has shown a slight uptick in infections.

Visayas and Mindanao

In Visayas, COVID-19 cases are slightly increasing in Western Visayas, plateauing after a sharp decline in Central Visayas, and still on the rise in Eastern Visayas.

In Mindanao, all regions are showing a downward trend in cases, except for Davao Region that is posting an “inconsistent” trend, according to De Guzman.

The country has so far recorded a total of 1.4 million confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 48,649 active cases as of Wednesday.

EDV