OCTA Research warns of 11,000 daily COVID-19 cases by end-March

MASS TESTING Residents of Bontoc, Mountain Province, undergo the government’s free mass swab testing on Jan. 28 at the provincial plaza following the surge of COVID-19 infections that included the more contagious UK variant. —PHOTO FROM BONDOC FACEBOOK PAGE

MANILA, Philippines — The daily cases of COVID-19 in the Philippines may burgeon to 10,000 to 11,000 by the end of March, a member of the OCTA Research group warned Tuesday.

In an interview over the ABS-CBN News Channel, Dr. Guido David of the OCTA Research group shared his observation that there is an upward trend of COVID-19 cases, as the reproduction number is now at 2.03.

The reproduction number or R-naught is the transmission rate of a disease, where the number equals how many people a patient can infect, where an R-naught of one means each patient can infect another potential patient.

“It (reproductiion number) is now above two, and what that means is that we have to recalculate to get the trends,” he said.

“So right now, the numbers that you mentioned, 8,000 to 9,000 they have now been up to 10,000 to 11,000 by the end of this month.

Previously, the OCTA Research projected that the country may record 8,000 new cases of COVID-19 daily if the trend of surge in infections continue.

According to David, the OCTA Research group noted that  most cities in the National Capital Region (NCR) is undergoing an increase in new cases.

However, David added that the COVID-19 outbreak in Pasay City, Malabon and Navotas is “slowing down.”

“The increase in cases is not just happening in NCR but is also happening in many areas in Calabarzon like in Rizal and Cavite and parts of Bulacan,” he said.

As of March 15, the Department of Health (DOH) reported 5,404 new COVID-19 cases, pushing the country’s total active cases to 53,479, as well as the total number of cases to 626,893.

EDV