Pagasa sees maximum of one storm per month from March to May
MANILA, Philippines — The country may experience zero to just one tropical cyclone per month in March, April, and May, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration’s (Pagasa) weather prediction.
Weather specialist Ariel Rojas said such climate disturbances usually cross the country’s midsection in March towards the West Philippine Sea while April and May are normally the months when the country’s hot dry season is at its peak.
Previous forecast tracks showed a tropical cyclone’s possible movement for March – cut across Visayas and Mindanao from the Pacific Ocean or move east and then back to the northern portion of the Pacific Ocean.
“Ngayon pong March 2021, gayundin po sa Abril at sa Mayo, wala or isa ang posibleng bagyong pumasok sa Philippine area of responsibility. Kadalasan po silang dumadaan sa gitnang bahagi ng bansa sa Marso, tumatawid palabas ng West Philippine Sea,” Rojas said.
(This March 2021, and also for April and May, we are expecting none or one typhoon to enter the Philippine area of responsibility. Usually, the cyclones during this month move through the country’s midsection towards the West Philippine Sea.)
“Sa Abril at Mayo naman ay bumabalik po o nagre-recurve dyan sa Dagat Pasipiko, at pagdating po ng Mayo ay mas tumatama po dito sa may southern part ng Luzon, at dito sa may West Philippine Sea pabalik sa may Northern Luzon, pabalik sa Dagat Pasipiko,” he added.
(In April and May, cyclones return or recurve over the Pacific Ocean, and come May has a greater chance to hit the southern part of Luzon, and here in the West Philippine Sea back to Northern Luzon, then back to the Pacific Ocean.)
Meanwhile, Pagasa said the La Niña episode is expected to last until this month although there is a 55 percent chance that conditions will return to neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics from April to June this year.
La Niña is characterized by colder than usual sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean’s equatorial and central regions, according to Pagasa.
It also said that with La Niña, wind shear is reduced paving the way for more frequent and stronger cyclones. On the other hand, Pagasa explained that its counterpart, the El Niño, is a condition where sea surface temperatures are higher than normal, introducing dry spells due to fewer rains.