Where US media got presidential race wrong, according to pollster

MANILA, Philippines — How did the US media fare in the 2020 presidential race?

The media’s role in the tumultuous contest between US President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Joe Biden was raised in a briefing last week for journalists attending the Foreign Press Centers: Elections 2020 Virtual Reporting Tour, of which the Inquirer was a participant.

A journalist asked public opinion pollster John Zogby, founder of the US polling firm Zogby Strategies, whether the American media, particularly those leaning toward Democrats, was “deceiving” the public after reporting that Biden was expected to have an overwhelming victory over Trump.

Close fight

Biden won the presidency after garnering more than the 270 electoral votes needed, as well as the popular vote. But it was a close fight with Biden winning 75 million votes (as of Sunday in Manila) against Trump’s 70.7 million votes.

Polls had earlier projected Biden as the winner.

Zogby was asked: “So the results (on Election Day) are shocking, we really thought the American nation hated Donald Trump and this election will be a piece of cake for Joe Biden. Do you think it’s the media, as almost all the American (television) channels are Democratic supporters, except for Fox News. Do you think the American media is deceiving us?’’

‘Adversarial’ role

Saying the question was “complicated,” Zogby underscored the fact that the 2020 presidential election was “not easy.” While Biden had led the polls up to 52 percent before Election Day, he noted “a fundamental stability to this polling that prevented Joe Biden, I think, from getting a majority and therefore an opening for Trump to do as he did the last time, to lose the popular vote but still win the electoral college.’’

“I have to say that my problem with mainstream media, in particular, is [its] role [which] I believe … to be adversarial—and that is to keep the power holder’s feet to the fire and to challenge,” Zogby said.

He said the media’s role “should not be oppositional,” as he pointed out how some television networks would comment for instance on Trump’s very often controversial tweets.

“‘Did you see what (Trump) did? Do you see how bad he is? Do you see how scurrilous and scandalous,’ to the point where you have to pretty much turn [the TV off] because there’s no good coverage,” he added.

Zogby said the “sad thing” was that Trump “feeds off of that.”

‘Playing by his rules’

“If I am an antielite candidate or antielite president, then I’m winning every time the elite supports what I say they’re doing. ‘Oh, they’re out to get me.’ A populist wins when he is a victim of the establishment, and Donald Trump has been able to do that very well, and I think the media really has allowed itself to be playing by his rules, and in that sense I think it’s very troublesome,’’ Zogby said.

Asked whether the media should own up to the mistake of its erroneous report on the election outcome, he said: “That’s a good question and it’s also a personal question because why take responsibility when you have pollsters to blame.’’

‘Trending away’

Zogby said the polls were blamed in the 2016 presidential race that saw Trump beating Hilary Clinton despite her winning the popular vote.

But he said the polls then did “actually fine,” although at that time, the “media couldn’t just get their arms around the fact that the election was trending away from the candidate that they wanted.”

By the media, Zogby referred to television networks and major national newspapers.

“This time around, there are some polls, though not all, that clearly blew it. As far as the media is concerned, I still think that they went into this with a sense that Donald Trump was going to lose, and that they’re stunned,’’ he said.

He added: “I think it’s time that they owned up to the fact that they’re missing something just like the rest of us must be missing something.’’