MANILA, Philippines — The latest forecast track of Typhoon “Rolly” shows that it would move over Central Luzon — close to Metro Manila — between Sunday night and Monday morning, state meteorologists said.
According to the weather report from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) on early Saturday morning, Rolly has taken the west southwestern turn as predicted, which means it is likely to traverse land near the National Capital Region.
Rolly’s wide diameter — estimated at 500 kilometers — means areas not directly hit by the typhoon’s eye can also experience similar conditions due to its wide reach.
“Going from Sunday evening papunta ng November 2 ng umaga, ito ‘yong time kung saan pinaka-malapit po itong si Bagyong Rolly dito sa bahagi ng Central Luzon, or actually andun na, over Central Luzon na itong is Bagyong Rolly,” weather specialist Benison Estareja said.
(Going from Sunday evening up to the morning of November 2, this is the time when Typhoon Rolly would be closest to Central Luzon, or actually staying there over Central Luzon by that time.)
“At pinaka-malapit din dito sa Metro Manila, sa other parts of Calabarzon, at inaasahan po na pagsapit po ng umaga ay tatawid na, lalabas dito sa may parteng Zambales-Pangasinan area,” he added.
(It would also be the time it is nearest to Metro Manila, other parts of Calabarzon, and we expect that by Monday morning it would cross the landmass near the Zambales-Pangasinan area).
During this time Rolly may still be a strong typhoon, although its intensity may have been slightly reduced after hitting land. But depending on the circumstances over the Philippine Sea, Rolly — now with maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 265 kph — may still intensify.
Earlier, Pagasa said that there is a likelihood that Rolly will enter the super typhoon category, as weather disturbances with wind speeds higher than 220 kph are considered super typhoons in local standards.
It was last seen 895 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora.
On Saturday, Pagasa expects Rolly to move to just 295 kilometers away from Virac, Catanduanes on Saturday night. And because of another expected turn, this time pointing west northwestward, it is seen to make landfall within the Aurora and northern Quezon area on Sunday, then moving into the vicinity of General Nakar.
Rolly would then move along Central Luzon, towards Pangasinan, and then exit the Luzon landmass as a severe tropical storm.
“As early as hating-gabi, nakaka-apekto na ‘yong mismong kabuuan ni Bagyong Rolly dito sa parte ng Bicol Region. Inaasahan sa magdamag ay pinaka-malalakas ‘yong pag-ulan sa Catanduanes and Camarines provinces,” Estareja explained.
(As early as Saturday midnight, Typhoon Rolly may start affecting parts of Bicol Region. Heavy rains overnight are expected over Catanduanes and the Camarines provinces.)
“Then pagsapit po ng umaga ng Undas (November 1) ay pinaka-malapit na po ito sa may Camarines provinces, and then eventually po pagsapit po ng hapon patungo na ito sa may area ng Quezon,” he added.
(On All Saints’ Day or November 1, it would be near Camarines provinces, and by Sunday afternoon it would move to the area of Quezon province.)
While Tropical Storm “Astani” has weakened into a tropical depression, state meteorologists expect it to intensify again eventually. It was last spotted 1,790 kilometers east of Visayas and has maximum sustained winds of 55 kph, and gustiness of 70 kph.
It has started moving northwest 25 kph.
Pagasa still expects Astani, which would be given the local name “Siony” once it enters the Philippine area of responsibility, to move to the east of extreme northern Luzon by Wednesday. By this time, it would have been a typhoon category disturbance.
Chances of Astani hitting land remains low but Pagasa assured that they are monitoring the situation.
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