Researchers see downward trend in PH virus cases

A group of independent researchers on Thursday said coronavirus cases in the Philippines were on a “downward trend,” seven months after the country was placed on lockdown to halt the spread of the COVID-19 pathogen.

But the group, OCTA Research, recommended stricter quarantine measures for at least 18 areas in the country, including Metro Manila.

In its Oct. 6 report, OCTA Research—composed of independent researchers from the University of the Philippines, University of Santo Tomas and Providence College in the United States—noted that there were now only 2,500 new coronavirus infections a day in the Philippines, placing the country back in its May-June case levels.

‘High-risk’ areas

It said the downward trend was more apparent in Metro Manila, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the country, where cases had slid to less than 1,000 a day.

The team, however, considers the metropolis and 17 other areas as “high-risk,” as they’re still recording more than 100 new cases a day for the past two weeks.

The other areas are Batangas, Benguet, Cavite, Davao del Sur, Iloilo, Laguna, Misamis Oriental, Negros Occidental, Nueva Ecija, Quezon, Pangasinan, Rizal, South Cotabato, Surigao del Sur, Western Samar and Zamboanga del Sur.

Meanwhile, the two baseline figures used to measure curve flattening—the reproductive number and the positivity rate—have likewise decreased to 0.82 and 8 percent, respectively. International health standards set the ideal rates at less than 1 and 5 percent, respectively.

But the positive trends “are not irreversible,” the group said, adding that significant efforts have to be undertaken by all to sustain the downward trend.

Health-care system’s capacity

“We urge the national and local governments to strictly monitor and enforce compliance with minimum health standards … as the strict and universal compliance with these can lower [coronavirus] transmissions in the country,” the team said.

To deal with “future surges” in light of the resumption of several socioeconomic strategies, the government must increase the capacity of the health-care system by setting up more isolation centers and launching an aggressive contact-tracing system, the group said.

It likewise recommended more aggressive local lockdowns for the 18 high-risk areas, as well as in Cagayan and Isabela provinces, where the problem is limited hospital capacity.

The group reiterated its past recommendations to urgently scale up testing, tracing and treatment strategies to control the spread of the coronavirus.

In response to the group’s recommendations, Carlito Galvez Jr., chief of the National Task Force Against COVID-19, said the government would no longer impose blanket lockdowns to suppress virus outbreaks. He said the current response was imposing local lockdowns, with health teams deployed to the localities with high transmission rates to boost their capacity to detect, isolate and treat COVID-19 cases.

Galvez said the government was supporting local governments without their own quarantines by providing isolation services to infected residents.

He said 683 treatment centers were under construction and these would add 24,000 beds to local capability in handling the coronavirus. He, however, did not say where the treatment centers were being built.

On Thursday, the Department of Health (DOH) reported 2,363 additional coronavirus infections, bringing the overall number of confirmed cases to 331,869.

Of the new cases identified by 122 of 142 accredited laboratories, 858 were from Metro Manila. Cavite accounted for 309; Batangas, 139; Rizal, 112; and Bulacan, 97.

The majority of the new cases, or 1,869, fell ill between Sept. 25 and Oct. 8.

The DOH reported that 697 more patients had recovered, raising the total number of COVID-19 survivors to 274,318. The death toll, however, rose to 6,069 with the deaths of 144 more patients.

That left the country with 51,482 active cases, of which 85.7 percent were mild, 9.8 percent asymptomatic, 1.4 percent severe, and 3.1 percent critical.

Of the newly reported fatalities, 47 died this month, 26 in September, 46 in August, and 25 in July.

Ninety-six of the fatalities were from Metro Manila, 14 from Calabarzon, eight from Central Visayas, seven from Central Luzon, six each from Western Visayas and Caraga, two from Davao, and one each from Ilocos, Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Soccsksargen and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. —WITH REPORTS FROM TINA G. SANTOS AND JEANNETTE I. ANDRADE