PH to have near to above normal rainfall due to La Niña — Pagasa
MANILA, Philippines — Most parts of the country will experience near to above normal rainfall conditions as the La Niña season will continue to persist until the first quarter of 2021, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Friday.
“La Niña is usually associated with above-normal rainfall conditions across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and early months of the following year,” Pagasa said in its advisory.
“Rainfall forecast from October 2020 to March 2021 suggests that most parts of the country will likely receive near to above normal rainfall conditions,” it added.
This after the weather bureau said the country will likely experience weak to moderate La Niña until the first quarter of 2021.
“Recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators signify La Niña is present in the tropical Pacific. Since June 2020, the sea surface temperature in the central and equatorial Pacific started to cool and further strengthened in September 2020 reaching La Niña threshold. Based on the latest forecast, weak to moderate La Niña is likely to persist until the first quarter of 2021,“ it said.
The country’s weather bureau also said five to eight tropical cyclones are expected to develop in the Philippine area of responsibility.
Pagasa also warned that the tropical cyclones may further enhance the northeast monsoon which could cause floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides over some areas.
In an online press conference aired on Pagasa Facebook page, Ana Liza Solis, chief of the weather bureau’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said Mimaropa, Eastern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao will be greatly affected by the La Niña.
‘Full-blown La Niña’
In an online press conference, Pagasa director Vicente Malano noted that there is a high chance that La Niña will become “full-blown” this October.
“Sa ngayon, hindi pa siya nag-develop into full blown La Niña at may chance na magkaroon ng 75 percent chance that La Niña will develop into a full-blown, although it is a weak La Niña, in late October or late November,” Malano said.
(For now, it is not yet a full-blown La Niña and there is a 75 percent chance that it will develop into a full-blown in late October or late November.)
