Manila — Among the many predictions geomancers dish out during the Chinese Lunar New Year, the most common is that the Year of the Dragon will be a volatile one for businesses and for the economy, in general.
One such person is Binondo-based feng shui practitioner Maxima “Maxie” Tiu who believes that 2012 will be a trying time for wealth creation and wealth preservation, notwithstanding the traditional belief that the dragon year is the most auspicious among the 12 signs of the oriental zodiac.
“This is the year of the water dragon, and the dragon breathes fire,” she said, explaining that the effects of both elements run counter to each other, thus creating tension and disrupting the harmonious flow of energies in the environment.
Tiu—whose shop along Ongpin Street in Manila has become a Mecca for feng shui adherents on the lookout for lucky charms—said out that many of her clients have come to her looking for items that will help bring prosperity by calming the temperamental dragon that rules this year.
“It might be a difficult year for business, but there are things you can do to help make things right for you,” she said. “It all depends on how you respond to the situation.”
In a similar manner, practitioners in the more empirical field of economics predict a volatile year for the economy of the Philippines and the rest of the world—a rare confluence of forecasts between the Eastern and Western philosophies.
BSP
According to Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Gov. Amando Tetangco Jr., the Philippines in 2012 faces the triple threat from the lingering weakness in the economy of the United States, which is the Philippines’ largest trading partner, the prolonged debt crisis in Europe, as well as the threat of a so-called hard landing in China, the world’s second largest economy and a major buyer of Philippine electronics and raw materials.
Indeed, because of these uncertainties, the government has cut its economic growth forecast for this year to 5-6 percent from its earlier target of 5.5-6.5 percent.
The target reduction was also partly due to the anemic growth of Philippine gross domestic product in the first three quarters of 2011, which observers attribute to the Aquino administration’s massive spending shortfall.
ECONOMISTS
Economists now predict that the 2011’s growth would struggle to meet even the lower end of the revised 4-5 percent growth target, making the Philippines the under-performer among its peers in the Asean region.
To help things along, the BSP has kept borrowing rates at record lows since the 2008 global financial crisis, and even cut them further last week to prod banks to lend (and thus, stimulate economic growth).
But banks—their vaults flooded with cheap money—seem to be frustrated by the dearth of projects where these funds could be put to more productive use.
GOV’T STIMULUS
“The banks are ready to lend,” said Bankers Association of the Philippines president Aurelio Montinola III, noting that the best way to insulate the country from the expected economic volatility from abroad in 2012 is for the government to move proactively.
“It’s the same as what everybody says: [invest more in] infrastructure and power, whichever way you do it,” he said. “You will have some problems from Europe, but you can offset it with more government stimulus.”
Montinola, who also heads the Bank of the Philippine Islands, the country’s third largest lender, welcomed pronouncements made by the Aquino administration’s economic managers about ramping up government spending this year, but aired a note of caution: “It’s one thing to announce the numbers, and it’s another thing for the people to see that the projects are moving.”
SHIELD COUNTRY
For his part, ING Investment Management CEO Paul Joseph Garcia urged to government to help shield the country from the expected global volatility this year by focusing more on the economy at home.
“They have to improve the capital stock of the country by boosting investments in infrastructure,” he said. “They should pave the way for the full implementation of PPP which—on paper—is a very good program. But as we’re seeing, there are delays and execution issues.”
Garcia noted that in 2011, the local economy’s growth was attributable almost entirely to the activities of the private sector, as the government clamped down on spending in an effort to cleanse the system of deeply rooted corruption.
It is, of course, impossible for any economy to protect itself fully from external developments, given the interconnected nature of global trade, but Garcia said that the risks could be mitigated through appropriate government response—a principle that feng shui adherent Tiu subscribes to.
FENG SHUI
“Feng shui is a guide,” she said, raising her voice above the growing din of customers crowding her store for lucky bracelets, wind chimes and coin charms on the eve of the Lunar New Year. “If you think it’s going to be a bad year, you have to invest in something that will offset the bad ‘chi.’ You hang things on the doorway or on the window to counter the effects of bad energy.”
“In feng shui or in business, nothing is absolute,” Tiu said. “Your response to the environment is what will make a difference.”
Wise words, whether you subscribe to the principles of geomancy or economics.
CEBU SECURITY
Meanwhile, Cebu City Police Chief Melvin Ramon Buenafe assured more foot patrols and more police visibility in areas where the celebrations of the Chinese New Year would be held.
Buenafe said that night watch patrols would be visible in barangays Banilad, Colon, Carbon and Fuente among others.
He said Cebu City police would also be on alert to respond immediately to any untoward incidents.
Cebu Province Police Chief Patrocinio Comendador for his part is also deploying more policemen to secure the celebrations.
“Although there’s a limited celebration in the province, I gave orders to all police units to coordinate with the Chinese communities in their areas of responsibility and deploy persons.” Comendador told Cebu Daily News in a text message. /INQUIRER with a report from Correspondent Rhea Ruth V. Rosell