Curve flattening in San Juan and Pasig?
MANILA, Philippines — The mayors of Pasig and San Juan sounded cautiously optimistic as both claimed to have flattened the curve for the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in their cities, with the reported number of new cases dropping in the past few days.
San Juan Mayor Francis Zamora said on Wednesday that the Department of Health believed COVID-19 cases in the city, now numbering 227, had already peaked—weeks after it emerged as the epicenter of the crisis in March.
Data from the local government showed that the new cases of COVID-19 in the city have fallen since reaching a high of 16 on March 27, even after testing was scaled up. The daily average of new cases reported in the last week is now around four.
Deaths due to the coronavirus in San Juan have also appeared to crater. Zamora said that since April 20, no new deaths have been recorded, leaving the number at 35, for now.
“But this good news shouldn’t make us complacent,” he pointed out on Facebook. “The local government will continue to expand testing for symptomatic individuals, persons under monitoring with direct exposure and front-liners, which could again increase confirmed cases.”
Heart of public life
The reported COVID-19 cases and deaths in the city have been heavily concentrated in Barangay Greenhills, which accounted for 19 percent of total confirmed cases. It is believed that the local spread of the virus can be traced to Greenhills Shopping Center, the heart of public life in San Juan.
In Pasig, Mayor Vico Sotto said earlier this week that it seemed the curve had been flattened in the city as well.
According to him, the new cases being reported each day ranged from five to 10. If COVID-19 was still spreading exponentially, the city would have recorded as many as 40 cases daily, he said.
“From a medical or scientific perspective, this is good news,” Sotto observed, adding: “The curve is flattening.”
Pasig is capable of conducting at least 350 COVID-19 tests each day, a number the local government has said is “satisfactory” to allow it to get a clear picture of the real situation. Based on its latest update on Tuesday, the city had 316 confirmed cases and 56 deaths.
While both mayors’ statements indicated there was reason to believe the spread of COVID-19 had slowed in their cities, there were lingering questions over whether enough tests were being conducted to be sure, especially since carriers who were asymptomatic don’t usually undergo testing.
The uneven response of local governments in Metro Manila could also pose a problem amid the porous borders between cities. Sotto has said that city-level data, while helpful, will need to be compared against other areas when the scheduled end of the extended enhanced community quarantine, May 15, approaches.
