In this April 13, 2020 file photo, homeless people get in line to receive food baskets from private donors during a lockdown to contain the spread of COVID-19, in downtown Johannesburg, South Africa. Wealthier Western countries are considering how to ease lockdown restrictions and start taking gradual steps toward reviving business and daily life. But many developing countries, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, can hardly afford the luxury of any misstep. South Africa, with the continent’s most cases, has been able to slow the pace of infections with a strict lockdown that remains in place at least until the end of April. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay, File)
JOHANNESBURG — Africa could see 300,000 deaths from the coronavirus even under the best-case scenario, according to a new report that cites modeling by the Imperial College London.
Under the worst-case scenario with no interventions against the virus, Africa could see 3.3 million deaths and 1.2 billion infections, the report by the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa says.
Even with “intense social distancing” under the best-case scenario the continent could see more than 122 million infections, the report says.
Any of the scenarios would overwhelm Africa’s largely fragile and underfunded health systems, experts have warned.
The continent as of Friday had more than 18,000 confirmed virus cases, but experts have said Africa is weeks behind Europe in the pandemic and the rate of increase has looked alarmingly similar.