WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump is expected to declare near-total triumph over the Islamic State group in Syria in his State of the Union address, but U.S. defense officials are increasingly fearful that the militants are simply biding their time until the Americans leave the battlefield as planned.
IS militants have lost territory since Trump’s surprise announcement in December that he was pulling U.S. forces out, but military officials warn the fighters could regroup within six months to a year after the Americans leave.
A Defense Department watchdog report released Monday warned of just such a possibility.
The Islamic State group “remains a potent force of battle-hardened and well-disciplined fighters that ‘could likely resurge in Syria’ absent continued counterterrorism pressure,” the report from the inspector general said.
Trump’s decision to leave Syria, which he initially said would be rapid but later slowed down, shocked U.S. allies led to the resignations of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and the top envoy to the anti-IS coalition, Brett McGurk.
The withdrawal will fulfill Trump’s goal of bringing troops home from Syria, but military leaders have pushed back for months, arguing that IS remains a threat and could regroup. U.S. policy has been to keep troops in place until the extremists are eradicated.
Fears that IS fighters are making strategic maneuvers ahead of a U.S. pullout could also fuel criticism that Trump is telegraphing his military plans — the same thing he accused President Barack Obama of doing in Afghanistan.
U.S. officials in recent weeks say IS has lost 99.5 percent of its territory and is holding on to fewer than 10 square kilometers of turf in Syria — an area smaller than New York’s Central Park. In late November and December that figure had been estimated at between 400 and 600 square kilometers, according to officials briefed on the matter.
But several defense officials said Monday that many fighters fled to ungoverned spaces and other pockets in the north and in the west and are likely hiding out until they can regroup.
Trump said in a weekend interview that the caliphate is “almost knocked out.”
“We’re at 99 percent right now, we’ll be at 100,” he said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”
U.S. officials say that IS fighters hold only several villages in the Middle Euphrates River Valley that amount to significantly less than 10 square kilometers. But, they say they don’t expect that area to be cleared of militants for another several weeks, at best.
Officials say that overall, there are about 2,000 IS militants in Syria. /gsg