Narrowing the disconnect

Will the ten million or so Filipino Overseas Foreign Workers redefine the future of  our grandchildren?

Leaf  through “Exceptional People” suggests  Isabel  Escoda from Hong Kong. This new  Princeton University book shows  the flow of people is reshaping that future.

Bangko Sentral dubbed a 2007 conference “OFWs: Ilan ba Talaga Tayo?” OFWs are in 193 countries and territories today. Their mobility and illegals make tallies difficult. Revolts, like the “Arab Spring,” can alter flows  overnight.

There are good estimates by the United Nations and other agencies. Over two million, for example, migrated  from China and 11 Southeast Asian countries. And one of every 10 Filipinos  is  abroad.

“Roughly 3,752 Filipinos leave daily,” noted Viewpoint. “That’s  28 times the first clutch of timid migrants who left  five decades back.” The demographic “youth bulge” is evident.  Many are between 25 to 44 years old . And 36 out of every 100 has a college degree.

Their remittances or padalas crested at  $21.3 billion last year—up from  $14.4 billion in 2007. Filipinos are world’s fourth highest remitters, after Indians, Chinese, and Mexicans. The cash lets off steam from pressure-cooker  poverty.

“The wage gap between rich and poor countries is far wider than it was a century ago,” note “Exceptional People” authors  Ian Goldin, Geoffrey Cameron and Meera Balarajan.

Per capita (gross domestic product at purchasing power parity) tables from IMF  are instructive: Philippines, $3,737; Thailand, $9,187; and Singapore, $52,839.

“You don’t have to answer this question, Captain,” a foreign recruiter told the Filipino 747 pilot. “You’re number seven in seniority at your airline. So, why sign up with us?” “Simple,” our high school classmate replied. “You pay me five times more. And it’s all tax free.” The recruiter  beamed. “Sign here, Captain.”

Thus,  the number of international migrants  doubled in the past quarter century to more than 200 million. In Latin America, Mexicans led migrants, mostly sprinting  for next-door US of A. Filipinos, Indonesians and Bangaldeshi  spearhead  migrants  from Asia. Filipino emigration rate is 4.0 percent, about double Vietnam’s  2.4 percent.

“Migration is the most effective tool yet devised for reducing global poverty,” the Princeton study asserts.  If rich countries allowed skilled migrants to expand their own labor forces by a mere 3 percent, the world would be richer, according to one estimate, by $356 billion a year. “That is more than 500 times the amount the rich world spends on foreign aid each year.”

Europe and America (and north Asian countries like Japan and Korea ) are aging. “They’ll need more young and energetic nurses, care assistants, housekeepers and cleaners,” add Goldin, Cameron and Balarajan. “Robots cannot do everything.” Migrants  can untangle a future of labor shortages in rich countries.

Demand for highly skilled workers will grow, authors Goldin, Cameron and Balarajan.predict. “In the decade ahead, advanced  nations  will compete even more fiercely for mobile talent.” Migration will “define our future.”

“Immigration is unpopular in rich countries. There, people overestimate its costs and underestimate its benefits. Migration creates losers as well as winners. But the gains vastly outweigh the losses.”

The UN   Human Development Report made the same point in 2009.  Migration  can be a win-win solution for both migrant-sending and -receiving countries. To achieve this,  the “Overcoming Barriers” study recommends “six pillar reforms.”

Among others, these include the following: (a) Make mobility an integral part of national development policies, (b) liberalize and simplify regular channels that allow people to work abroad, ( c ) ensure basic rights for migrants, and (d) reduce migration transaction costs.

“The next big wave of migration will come from Africa,” predicts  this new book. “Today, most Africans are too poor to move far. A typical Congolese peasant cannot afford the boat fare to Kinshasa, let alone Belgium. But as the continent becomes less poor, more and more Africans will acquire the means to migrate.

Over 25,000 North Africans refugees, meanwhile,  swamped Italy’s islet of Lampedusa. Is this the first sign of that wave?

The Philippine migration flood won’t ebb anytime soon, caution Jeff Ducanes and Manolo Abella of UN in their OECD study: “Future of  International Migration.” The Korean and Thai experiences  show that  pressure to migrate eases with sustained economic growth. For the Philippines, that point could  come in the 2030s. For much of the  next decade, pressure to migrate will persist.

Surveys show that four out of 10 kids, aged 10 to 12, dream of working abroad. And six out of 10 children of OFWs say they, too, would head for the exit, as did their parents.

“The Philippines is still wedded to labor deployment . There are no signs of a policy shift that will link the country’s migration policies to development processes.

Nor have we tallied the trauma to a generation of  kids whose substitute parents were a padala. “I hear confessions of children whose parents work abroad,” a Jesuit friend said. “I’m stunned by their confusion and pain.”

Local  governments  in former emigration countries like, Taiwan, India and China put up resources to bring skilled migrants home. LGUs here are fixated on sucking the 20 percent Local Development Fund as their pork barrel.

This disconnect must  be narrowed. Our fathers never imagined an exodus of 10 percent of the population. Many of our children cannot recall a different past.