Democrats seen taking House; Republicans to hold Senate

DOWN THE STRETCH Supporters of US President Donald Trump come out in droves during an Oct. 27 election rally in Murphysboro, Illinois. Trump has scheduled 10 campaign rallies over the next five days in eight states to ratchet up the rhetoric and campaign furiously for Republican candidates. —AFP

WASHINGTON—As the US midterm election campaign enters the final stretch before Tuesday’s vote, many races are too close to call but most polls have Democrats seizing control of the House of Representatives and Republicans clinging on to the Senate.

President Donald Trump is ratcheting up the rhetoric and campaigning furiously as he seeks to hold on to the Republican majorities in the two chambers of Congress.

All 435 seats in the House are up for grabs on Tuesday while 35 seats in the 100-member Senate are at stake. Americans will choose new governors in 36 states.

Republicans currently have a slim 51-49 hold on the Senate, where Democrats have a tough hill to climb with 26 Democratic seats on the ballot, while Republicans must only defend nine.

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House they lost in 2010, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi predicted this week they would do so.

“Democrats will carry the House,” Pelosi said on “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert,” while also forecasting victory in the Senate.

Political forecasting outlet FiveThirtyEight.com gives Democrats a 5 in 6, or 84.5 percent, chance of gaining control of the House but only a 1 in 7, or roughly 15 percent, chance of winning the Senate.

As election day approaches and with turnout a major factor, Trump has sought to drive Republicans to the polls and rekindle the enthusiasm of his successful 2016 presidential bid.

“I’m not on the ticket, but I am on the ticket because this is also a referendum about me,” he said at a rally last month in Mississippi. “Pretend I’m on the ballot.”

Anxiety, hope in Asia

Hope and anxiety hang over Asia and north Asia in particular ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm election.

Trump has shaken up Asia, as he has much of the world. Now Beijing, Seoul and other Asian capitals are waiting to see if the Democrats wrest control of at least one house of Congress from the Republicans and whether that would significantly alter US foreign policy and trade initiatives.

In South Korea, the concern is that Trump might sour on North Korea after months of bold engagement. For China, the hope is he might be forced to ease off on trade.

The world’s two biggest economies have been throwing escalating import tariffs at each other since March, unnerving global markets. Trump accuses Beijing of trying to steal US intellectual property and unfairly protecting its domestic market and state-run companies.

Anti-immigration rhetoric

Trump has scheduled 10 campaign rallies over the next five days in eight states: Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Tennessee and West Virginia.

Trump has dialed up the rhetoric on immigration, issuing dire warnings about caravans of Central American migrants heading to the US border with Mexico.

Claiming the caravans include “very bad thugs and gang members,” Trump has ordered 5,000 active-duty troops to the border and said he was considering sending up to 15,000.

“This isn’t an innocent group of people,” Trump said on Thursday, adding: “This is an invasion.”

Trump also posted a political ad on his Twitter account on Wednesday that showed a Mexican man boasting about killing police officers and included the caption “Democrats let him into the country.”

Democrats accused the president of seeking to inflame his supporters with his anti-immigration appeals.

“This is fear mongering,” Tom Perez, chair of the Democratic National Committee, told CNN. “This has been Donald Trump’s playbook for so long.”

Control of the Senate will come down to a handful of races, in Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia, according to political analysts.

Tight Senate races

In Arizona, two women, Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Rep. Martha McSally, a former air force fighter pilot, are battling to replace Sen. Jeff Flake, a Trump critic who is not running for reelection. FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Sinema a slight edge.

In Florida, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is involved in a tough reelection battle with Republican Gov. Rick Scott. FiveThirtyEight.com has Nelson with a small lead. —REPORTS FROM AFP AND AP