LOS BAÑOS, Laguna?Scientists here recommended crop forecasting as among the new approaches that could help farmers mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Dr. Felino Lansigan, a professor at the Institute of Statistics at the University of the Philippines-Los Baños and a member scientist of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said the damage wrought by storms ?Ondoy,? ?Pepeng? and ?Santi? raised growing concerns on how to aid the farmers.

On Nov. 9-13, Lansigan and several other scientists gave their second international training in Bangkok, Thailand, on scientifically proven strategies in managing climate change risks.

Lansigan said crop forecasting, the creation of a cropping calendar based on rainfall observed in the past to determine when and what crops to plant, is critical for the agriculture sector.

?Starting on April 1, the driest time, observe when 30 days of continuous rains with accumulated 200 millimeters of rainfall occurs. When this is observed, then that?s the time to plant,? he explains.

Lansigan said this suggestion, which was already voiced out by a Japanese scientist in 1978, was tested by one of his students through modeling.

?The thesis proved it and showed that planting at such a time gave the highest chances of getting a reasonable yield.?

He advised farmers to use varieties of crops that are tolerant to particular weather conditions.

Adapting

Farmers said they have been implementing similar adaptation measures in their farms.

Lucio Gurango, a farmer in Real, Quezon and president of the farmers? group Center of Organic Farmers Association in Real, said that changes in climate in previous years had affected their harvest.

Crops which they plant during what they expect to be hot months were hit by rains and vice versa, he said.

Since they started sustainable organic agriculture in 2005, however, Gurango said they were able to ensure harvest despite the changing weather conditions.

?We have rice seeds adapted for varying conditions,? he added.

For the hot season, he said they have the traditional upland rice varieties that do not require much water such as ?Ginarapon? and ?Inengkanto.?

?During rainy months, we use varieties such as the M36-4 line and Pinilig which have hardy stalks and medium height so they won?t be submerged but also will not bend during typhoons, he added.

Gurango said traditional rice varieties are deeply rooted such that even when the soil is dry on the surface the plants survive because they could absorb water deeper in the soil.

Diversity

?We plant diverse crops?rice, vegetables, fruit trees and even have livestock to ensure a source for our family?s consumption; some we sell to the local market,? he said.

According to him, in the rice field, farmers plant six varieties which have varying characteristics such as resistance to pests to ensure a harvest.

Gurango explained that the strong ties of their organization and the principle of bayanihan (self-help) make farmers cope with the dire effects of climate change.

He has been giving seeds to farmers whose crops were affected by the sudden hot weather and to farmers in nearby Polillo Island who hope to practice the same sustainable organic agriculture.

This was affirmed by Virginia Nazareno, a farmer in General Nakar, Quezon, who said they were able to adapt to changing conditions by choosing from a wide range of varieties to plant and learning from the experiences of other farmers.

Lansigan said one limitation for the crop forecasting approach, however, ?is the lack of local weather stations in the country that would provide the necessary data.?

?The local government unit through the municipal agriculturist office can provide data on the amount of rainfall if each LGU has its own rain gauge,? he said, adding that this would also provide local government units with real-time data about weather disturbances.