MANILA, Philippines?The worst of El Niño is not over because the drop in the water levels in Luzon dams may surpass that during the 1997-98 drought if it does not rain soon, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astrological Services Administration (Pagasa) said Friday.

Susan Espinueva, officer in charge of Pagasa?s Hydrometeorological Division, said dams in Luzon could reach critical levels by March and April. At these levels, the dams would be unable to supply water for irrigation and power generation.

?For Magat Dam in Isabela, the most severely affected dam in the country, the water could drop below record levels in as [short a time] as a couple of days,? she warned.

Magat Dam provides irrigation and hydroelectric power to Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino and large parts of Isabela.

Espinueva said that in 1998, the average water level of Magat was 160.5 meters as opposed to its normal level of 185.51 m. As of Friday, she said, the water level was 161.7 m.

?The average decrease is .5 m a day, so we can reach levels below the 1998 average in just a couple of days if conditions don?t change. That is very severe. Definitely, records will be broken,? she said.

She added that water levels in the Angat, Binga and Pantabangan Dams were also dropping.

Nathaniel Santos, officer in charge of the National Water Resources Board (NWRB), said the water level in Angat as of 6 a.m. on Friday was 195.75 m, down from its normal level of 199.61 m.

Angat provides irrigation to farmlands in Bulacan and Pampanga and water to Metro Manila?s 15 million residents.

Phenomenon has peaked

El Niño is the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific that leads to droughts and other extreme weather conditions.

Espinueva said the phenomenon had reached its peak in the country but that conditions could normalize only after several months.

?That is good news in a way but we would still feel the effects. There is always a lag time between improving conditions in the Pacific and conditions in our country. The worst is not yet over,? she said.

Espinueva also said that without rain, upland and low-lying areas around Magat Dam would get no water for irrigation in one week and by March 15, respectively.

?If there are no rains, massive cloud seeding is the only alternative,? she said.

But Pagasa noted a rise in the water levels of Ipo, La Mesa and San Roque Dams on Friday, Espinueva said. She attributed this development to ?localized rain showers? in the past few days.

Rising power rates

Manila Electric Co. urged its customers to conserve and use energy more efficiently in the face of the prolonged drought.

In a statement, Meralco said it was backing the call of the nongovernment EcoWaste Coalition to save power, and added that doing so would be good not only for household budgets but also for the environment.

?That the warming climate is taking its toll on power rates was made evident by the rise in the generation charge for February. After the generation charge decreased for most of the latter half of last year until January, it registered an upward movement this month,? Meralco external communications head Joe Zaldarriaga said.

He said the trend was expected to continue as summer approached.

?We would like to clarify, though, that the generation charge is merely a pass-through charge that accrues to generation companies like National Power Corp. (Napocor) and the independent power producers (IPPs),? he said.

Zaldarriaga said that with the drop in the dams? water levels, the hydroplants? generating capacity would also be lower.

Generation deficiency

Hydroplants usually generate cheaper electricity than power plants run by other sources, he said.

National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) reported on Friday that hydropower facilities in Mindanao were functioning at only 40 percent of their capacity as water levels in the dams continued to decline.

?Because of the generation deficiency, the total available hydro capability in Mindanao is only 389 megawatts out of the total rated capability of 982 MW. In Mindanao, most hydroelectric power plant units are still running with limited capabilities due to the low water levels at reservoirs,? it said.

NGCP also said the Luzon grid now had enough power reserves to export about 150 MW to the Visayas grid, which had a supply deficit of only 31 MW as of Friday.

It said the Mindanao grid had a deficit of 259 MW.

Also on Friday, the state-owned Napocor denied reports that it was depleting the water supply at Angat Dam for power generation. But it admitted that the hydropower facility was still producing a minimal 65 MW.

Spokesperson Dennis Gana said Napocor was using only the water allocated to it by the NWRB to run its main generating units.

Conserve water

In a statement, Environment Secretary Horacio Ramos said Malacañang had called on government agencies to cut water consumption by 10 percent. He said the private sector should do likewise.

?We are urging the country?s top companies to reuse wastewater and tap it to water plants, cool boilers, flush urinals and toilet bowls, even to wash company vehicles,? he said.

Ramos directed all offices of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, especially in the regions, to conserve water.

Way of life

?In the face of climate change, it is important that Filipinos now adopt water conservation as a way of life, and not only during the summer months. Every drop of water we save can spell life to some of our countrymen in far-flung areas in need of water to drink,? he said.

Meralco?s Zaldarriaga said that amid the strain El Niño was causing, the power firm was trying to bring down generation costs through prudent sourcing practices and programs promoting environmental protection. With reports from Gil C. Cabacungan Jr. and Miko Morelos