MANILA, Philippines?Sen. Manuel Villar or his closest rival, Sen. Benigno ?Noynoy? Aquino III, would win the presidency if the elections were held last month, results of a survey conducted by Pulse Asia Inc. show.

Although finding himself in the midst of a political storm over the C-5 controversy, Villar, the standard-bearer of the Nacionalista Party (NP), managed to continue his surge in the ratings game.

In contrast, Aquino?s ratings continued to go down in the Jan. 22-26 Pulse Asia survey on voter preferences for national positions.

With a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, Aquino and Villar were statistically tied about four months before the May 10 elections.

This was the first time since Aquino declared his presidential bid in September last year that Villar surmounted the former?s commanding lead.

Compared with the December 2009 survey, support for Villar improved by 12 percentage points (from 23 percent to 35 percent), while support for Aquino declined by 8 percentage points (from 45 percent to 37 percent).

Asked about the decline in Aquino?s numbers, Pulse Asia president Ronald D. Holmes said, ?Perhaps there were certain things that were not done, certain steps that were not taken which contributed to the erosion of support for Noynoy.?

The survey was not commissioned by an outside entity. Pulse Asia conducted it on its own.

Pulse Asia asked 1,800 representative adults the question: ?If the coming 2010 elections were held today, whom would you vote for as President of the Philippines??

It made use of a ballot that conformed with the latest Commission on Elections? sample that was available before the survey was conducted.

Respondents were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot, which listed the names of the candidates for the national posts alphabetically.

In a press release, Ana Maria L. Tabunda, Pulse Asia chief research fellow, said Aquino and Villar enjoyed virtually the same voter preference in the survey.

Estrada, others

The only other presidential candidate with a double-digit voters? preference was former President Joseph Estrada of Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, who got 12 percent.

Compared with the December 2009 survey, support for Estrada declined by 7 percentage points.

Voter preferences for the other presidential candidates did not register marked changes. Former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro got 5 percent; Bro. Eddie Villanueva, 2 percent; and Sen. Richard Gordon, 1 percent.

Receiving less than a percent were Sen. Jamby Madrigal (0.5 percent), JC de los Reyes (0.3 percent), Vetallano ?Dodong? Acosta (0.2 percent), and Nicanor Perlas (0.05 percent).

Six percent of the respondents did not have a preferred presidential candidate at the time of the survey.

Tabunda said Aquino led among Class D (40 percent) and among the elderly aged 65 years and over (42 percent).

On the other hand, Villar enjoyed the lead in the 25-34 age group (42 percent), she said.

?Voter preferences for the two leading candidates are essentially the same across the other socioeconomic classes and age groups,? she said.

Ecstatic

Villar?s supporters were ecstatic.

?It?s definitely a morale booster. It gives us confidence that Senator Villar?s candidacy has not been affected by the C-5 issue that has repeatedly been hurled against him,? NP spokesperson Gilbert Remulla said.

Remulla, a senatorial candidate, added that the latest survey results had ?encouraged [the party] to work even harder to maintain the upward numbers? of its standard-bearer.

Waning Cory fever

A combination of several factors can explain Villar?s rise in the surveys, Remulla said.

These include the ?waning Cory fever,? an effective communications strategy that includes Villar?s inescapable advertisements and shunning a ?negative campaign,? Remulla said.

?And I think another factor is that Senator Villar is being portrayed as the underdog because of the repeated attacks against him that possibly backfired,? he said.

Premature campaign

Aquino, presidential candidate of the Liberal Party (LP), blamed the slide in his ratings on the penchant of other candidates to engage in premature campaigning.

At a press conference, he also cited the attacks launched by Villar and other political foes, and ?the unprecedented and sustained ad spending in all forms of media of the other camp.?

Harassment that the LP has been getting from the administration also contributed to the decline in his ratings, he said.

Message not getting across

Asked why Villar?s ratings were shooting up despite the corruption issue hurled against the NP presidential candidate, Aquino said his campaign message of change and hope might not be getting across.

But he expected that his ?doubting? supporters would again rally behind his candidacy once he goes around the country and explain his platform.

However, Aquino admitted that much still had to be done to improve his campaign.

?In the coming days we will be able to do this with greater frequency and in a sustained manner through us and through TV and radio advertisements and campaign sorties,? he said.

Bulldozing LP with ads

Aquino?s spokesperson said Villar ratings surged because of his ads. Edwin Lacierda said Villar had come out with up to 20 types of political ads and spent around P2.5 billion for advertisements.

?He is bulldozing us with ads. He is not leveling the playing field. Senator Villar is omnipresent in TV and radio,? Lacierda said in an interview.

A Nielsen Media Research study showed that Villar spent P543 million in ads from October to December in 2009. This was a 553-percent increase in his ad spending compared with 2008 and made Villar the only individual to make it to the top 20 ad spenders in the country.

Aquino campaign manager Florencio ?Butch? Abad said another Nielsen report showed that Villar spent P70 million on Jan. 22-24 while the Aquino camp spent P8 million.

Reassess strategy

?Villar has been able to flood TV and radio with his advertising. He?s outspending us 10 to 1, drowning the airwaves with his ads,? Abad said.

LP spokesperson Lorenzo Tañada III said Aquino would have to reassess the way he was projecting himself and how he was presenting his message.

Tañada said the message in Aquino?s ads might not be as clear as the LP had wanted it to be, hence the absence of a sharp spike in his ratings.

He acknowledged that the party could not match Villar?s big spending.

Poor showing

Zambales Rep. Ma. Milagros Magsaysay maintained that Lakas-Kampi-CMD standard-bearer Gilbert Teodoro?s lackluster ratings were the consequence of his late entry into the presidential race.

Speaker Prospero Nograles said Teodoro was poised to gain more ground with the start of the campaign season next week as more people get to hear his message and appreciate his qualities.

Perlas remained unfazed by his poor showing in the surveys. ?I am thinking of winning the presidency. I am not worried at all,? Perlas said at a forum in the University of the Philippines attended by students.

He attributed his poor showing in the polls to his previous disqualification by the Comelec. ?It will all take some time. Everything is in place. Otherwise, I should have gone out (of the race).?

He claimed that he had the endorsements of ?mass movements? with members numbering in the millions around the country to support him. These groups, he said, are composed of all sectors of society including students, professionals, environmentalists, lumads, members of the military, Muslim and Christian leaders.

?There is a massive support for the new politics I represent,? he said. Reports from Michael Lim Ubac, Alycia Gawthorne, Philip C. Tubeza, Nikko Dizon, Leila B. Salaverria, Gil C. Cabacungan Jr. and Alcuin Papa; and Eliza Victoria, Inquirer Research