MANILA, Philippines?Sen. Benigno ?Noynoy? Aquino III will have to define what he is ?running for,? and not just what he is ?running against,? now that the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey has shown a ?definite drop? in his numbers, a political analyst said Monday.

Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Institute of Political and Electoral Reform (IPER), said Sen. Manuel Villar had been able to narrow the gap between him and Aquino not only because of his many ads but also because Aquino had not been able to get across his message of what he would do if he won the presidency.

Casiple acknowledged that Aquino ?has come out strongly against corruption and against the sins of the Arroyo administration, but we are electing the nation?s leader here and people expect him to be able to do something about their myriad of problems.?

?The perception is Villar is saying ?I will take you all out of poverty? while for Noynoy, it?s like ?I will think about it but I promise you I won?t steal,?? Casiple added.

He said Aquino should also have to address questions about ?Kamag-anak Inc.? or the alleged involvement of his relatives in corruption scandals during the term of the senator?s mother, the late President Corazon Aquino. ?There are already jokes going around that he might not steal but those around him will. That?s going to hurt,? Casiple said.

While the SWS survey indicated that Aquino was vulnerable, the results showed that Villar?s surge had slowed down. ?In the previous survey, his numbers jumped from 27 to 33 percent but now it only increased from 33 to 35 percent,? Casiple said.

He said this was because the number of undecided voters had gone down to just one percent and so for the candidates to move upward in the polls, they would have to raid voters from other camps. ?This means the next stage of the campaign will really be a slugfest.?

Casiple said the 2-point increase in Villar?s rating might have come from a decrease in the numbers of Aquino and former President Joseph Estrada. ?If Senator Villar wants to go up, he will have to find a way to get Estrada?s support or cannibalize Erap. And since Noynoy is now vulnerable, I expect Senator Villar to continue going after him,? Casiple said.

He said Estrada was vulnerable because the public was already thinking that this was going to be a fight between Aquino and Villar.

Casiple said Villar still faced an uphill battle if he wanted to top Aquino because his surge had slowed down.

?The latest survey showed that he got one percentage point from Aquino over the last three weeks. At this rate, it means a deduction of 1 percentage point [from Aquino] every three weeks [but] we only have around 90 days left. So, it?s really going to be hard,? he said.

Casiple added that Villar?s numbers might also be affected in the next survey by the raging C-5 controversy in the Senate.

?It?s expected to be bad for him and I don?t think the Liberal Party will just take this (latest survey results) sitting down,? he said.