LEGAZPI CITY?Mayon Volcano Wednesday hurled huge ash columns as high as one kilometer into the sky as the angry mountain threatened to unleash its first major Christmastime eruption in 138 years.

?Parameters are high up to now and the intensifying activity might force us to raise the alert level to its highest,? resident volcanologist Eduardo Laguerta said Wednesday.

?But it would happen only when Mayon shoots a straight ash column containing pyroclastic materials and molten, burning rocks as big as houses or buses, from its crater, accompanied by intense rumbling and jittering of the ground felt as far as this city,? Laguerta said.

Mayon has had a history of 49 eruptions in 400 years, but only three of them?excluding the current series of blasts?occurred at a time corresponding to the Christmas season in the Philippines. This was in 1868, 1871 and 1888.

The 1871 blast killed three people, blanketing Legazpi, Camalig and Guinobatan with ash, according to the records of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs). The 1868 and 1888 eruptions killed no one.

One of the deadliest of the country?s 22 active volcanoes, the 2,460-meter Mayon shot up pillars of ash into the cloudy sky 66 times in the last 24 hours, accompanied by 1,059 volcanic earthquakes?slightly less than the previous day, Phivolcs said.



Volcanologists said alert level 5?the highest state of alert?could be declared anytime as they waited for one major sign?a chocolate-colored mass of ash column shooting straight up into the air as high as 10-15 km from the crater.

Alert level 4 is currently enforced. It means a major eruption could happen within hours or days. Level 5 means a hazardous eruption is in progress.

?The earthquakes and tremors, the gas output and those rumbling and booming sounds and series of mild ash explosions ? are the parameters which point to a higher percentage of a hazardous eruption happening,? Laguerta said.

Wells drying up

Phivolcs is verifying reports that wells are drying up in the villages of Maninila, Mabalod and Masarawag in Guinobatan town, on the western part of Mayon, and in Barangay Buang, Tabaco City, on the northeast.

An uneasy behavior was detected among animals in July when alert level 2 was raised.

Laguerta said about 20 million cubic meters of ash and lava had already reached a distance of 5 km downslope, while fine ?irritating? ashes fell as far as the town of Polangui, but mainly affecting the towns of Guinobatan and Camalig.

The volume of ash and lava so far emitted is enough to fill the equivalent of 80,000 Olympic-size swimming pools (250 cu m/swimming pool), experts said.

Laguerta also said Mayon?s past eruptions dumped at least 50 million cubic meters and possibly even as high as 150 million cubic meters of volcanic materials along its slopes.

Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum said many of the 1,059 earthquakes detected during the past 24-hour observation hit maximum deflections in the seismograph. Harmonic tremors were also continuously recorded.

The sulfur dioxide emission rate remained elevated, at an average of 6,737 tons per day from Tuesday to early Wednesday.

During cloud breaks, 66 ash explosions were observed, the peak height of 1 km being occurring at 4:21 p.m. on Tuesday. Booming and rumbling sounds were intermittently heard.

Danger zones

The lava front has reached about 5 km downslope from the summit, Phivolcs said.

It reiterated that the extended danger zone from the summit of 8 km on the southern sector and 7 km on the northern sector should be free from human activity.

The Philippine Army-Philippine National Police Task Force Mayon is conducting a census of people who keep coming back to their homes despite the volcano?s very abnormal condition.

?Because they cannot be told to stay at their designated evacuation centers, they would be asked to sign a waiver for risking their lives there,? said Capt. Razaleigh G. Bansawan, spokesperson of the task force.

The Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council (PDCC) has yet to approve the task force plan on waivers.

Total ban

Bansawan said the ?no human activity? policy inside the danger zones was part of Gov. Joey Salceda?s zero-casualty goal.

Initial data showed dozens of residents were still at Mabinit, Legazpi City, within the extended danger zone.

Salceda has recommended a total ban on people within the danger zones. ?If you are there and Mayon violently erupts, you are dead, so what is the use of a waiver?? he said.

?It is better to stay away from the volcano while there is still time ? After all, the government will help them rebuild their homes, farms and their lives.?

Despite the risk of an imminent explosive eruption, some residents plan to go back to their villages for traditional Christmas Eve family gatherings. Others want to retrieve their livestock or harvest crops.

DoH moves

The Department of Health (DoH) has provided P6 million for medicines and portable toilets for distribution to all evacuation centers.

The DoH plans to distribute tents to decongest the temporary shelters.

Solidum said Mayon?s increasing activity could lead to a major eruption.

?It has intensified since we hoisted alert level 4, and there have been new explosions,? Solidum said.

?The tendency of the volcano is that the pressure is getting stronger and stronger and this could lead to a major explosion ? Mayon remains in a very critical level.?

When Mayon last erupted in 2006, it oozed lava and ash for two months. No one died directly from the eruption, but a typhoon later dislodged tons of volcanic debris, killing over 1,000 people.

The first recorded eruption of Mayon occurred in 1616. Its 1814 eruption buried Cagsawa church. With reports from Alcuin Papa in Manila, Inquirer Research, Associated Press and Agence France-Presse