MANILA, Philippines — Joseph “Erap” Estrada may run for president until a complaint is filed against his candidacy and the court or the Commission on Elections rules in favor of the complaint, Comelec Chair Jose Melo said Thursday.

Speaking at a media briefing, Melo said the Comelec could not stop Estrada from filing a certificate of candidacy. “We cannot say if he is qualified or not. There is no case against him. Right now, it seems that he is qualified because there is no protest against him,” he said.

The ousted President and plunder convict formally declared his intention to seek reelection on Wednesday. His chosen running mate is Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, the president of the United Opposition (UNO).

In Malacañang, Cabinet Secretary Silvestre Bello III Thursday said “a deluge of petitions” questioning Estrada’s eligibility to join the 2010 presidential race should be expected.

Thus, Bello said, there would be no need for the Palace to lodge its own petition even if Estrada’s political comeback was made possible by the pardon granted him by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in 2007.

“I am sure that the moment President Estrada files his certificate of candidacy … there will be a deluge of petitions to have it disqualified,” Bello said at a press briefing.

He said these petitions would come from Estrada’s own backyard, the political opposition, which remains divided among at least three known presidential aspirants.

“I’m sure many of the people belonging to the other parties who will be affected by his entry will just be too happy and too eager to see to it that he will be disqualified,” Bello said.

No worries

But two opposition parties—Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) and Liberal Party (LP)—are not worried.

Valenzuela Rep. Rex Gatchalian, the NPC spokesperson, said the party had no problem with more candidates throwing their hat into the ring.

“If you’re asking if the NPC will contest Erap’s candidacy, we have no plans of doing that,” Gatchalian said by phone. “We welcome it because in any democracy, more candidates running means more platforms of governance to choose from.”

Asked if he was worried that Estrada might erode the NPC standard-bearer’s vote base, Gatchalian said the party was confident that the people would choose its candidate for his platform of governance.

He also said Agusan del Sur Rep. Rodolfo Plaza would be included in the NPC senatorial slate despite Estrada’s announcement that the latter would be in his senatorial slate.

The NPC has yet to formally announce its standard-bearer but it is widely believed to be fielding Sen. Francis Escudero.

LP welcoming

The LP, whose standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Aquino III is leading in the surveys, also has no plan to pose a legal challenge to Estrada, according to its spokesperson, Quezon Rep. Lorenzo Tañada III.

“The LP does not intend to question the right of President Erap to run for president,” Tañada said in a text message.

He said he believed it was too early to say what effect Estrada would have on Aquino’s chances, and that the party intended to work double-time to improve on its gains.

“We welcome [Estrada’s] entry so the people will have a choice. We consider all candidates formidable opponents and the LP should continue to work hard to keep the people’s trust,” Tañada said.

Muntinlupa Rep. Rufino Biazon of the LP said that Estrada’s run would split the votes of the opposition.

Biazon said he was waiting to see whether Estrada could eat into Aquino’s lead, although he noted that in the latest survey, the LP standard-bearer had a “comfortable lead” over the ousted President.

‘When the time comes’

Estrada’s declared intention to again seek the presidency will test the constitutional ban on reelection for anybody who has been elected president.

A former actor with a wide following among the masses, Estrada was elected president in 1998 by an unprecedented vote (around 11 million) but was ousted from office in 2001 on charges of corruption.

After six years of trial, he was convicted of plunder by the Sandiganbayan in September 2007. Ms Arroyo pardoned him a month later.

Melo hinted that the constitutional ban and the terms of the pardon would be discussed “when the time comes.”

The filing of certificates of candidacy is scheduled on Nov. 20-30. If Estrada files his certificate, only then may a pre-election protest be submitted to the Comelec, Melo said.

He said the poll body would have to act quickly on the complaint, which, he pointed out, could be elevated by interested parties to the Supreme Court.

Furthermore, the Comelec has to resolve all complaints by Jan. 7 because it has to print the ballots to be used in the automated elections, Melo said.

‘Tough opponent’

Speaking at the Kapihan sa Senado news forum, Senate Majority Leader Juan Miguel Zubiri said Estrada was “absolutely ... a threat” to the administration with his planned run in 2010.

Zubiri, a stalwart of the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD, said that despite the legal barriers Estrada was facing, he was “a formidable presidential candidate.”

“He is still well loved by the Filipino masses. He is their idol, so he will be a tough opponent,” Zubiri said, adding:

“You should never look at him lightly. You should always treat him as a formidable opponent. I hope the planners and strategists of Lakas-Kampi will consider this.”

Zubiri refused to comment on whether Estrada was eligible for reelection.

“Even the lawyers can’t agree on whether he can still run or not, so the final arbiter really will be the Supreme Court,” the senator said.

Cabinet Secretary Bello said Malacañang was sticking to its position that the court should ultimately decide on Estrada’s eligibility to run again.

But he indicated that the Palace would have no problem even if Estrada seeks reelection.

“Let the courts decide and, in the final analysis, let the people decide,” Bello said. “I hope I don’t sound like bragging but in our case, we rely on the strength of the candidate, not on the weakness of the opponent.”

The Lakas-Kampi-CMD standard-bearer, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, remains at the bottom of the surveys on presidential aspirants.

Earlier, Senate Minority Leader Aquilino Pimentel Jr. warned that Estrada’s candidacy would give the administration a cover if it would cheat in the presidential election.

According to Pimentel, if its candidate wins through cheating, the administration can say this is because the opposition is divided.

‘Any election’ vs ‘any reelection’

Sixto Brillantes, an expert in election law and a former legal consultant of the UNO, argued that Estrada was eligible to run and that the Constitution barred only a sitting President from seeking “any reelection.”

“If the term is ‘any election,’ then he would be disqualified. But ‘any reelection’ would refer only to an incumbent president,” he told the Inquirer.

Brillantes warned that an Estrada disqualification would lead to “complications” because of the absence of an existing rule on candidacy by “substitution.”

He said the Comelec should bar substitution in the event of a candidate’s death or disqualification. “That’s the best solution,” he said.

Whereas clause

A “whereas” clause in the pardon declaration reads: “Joseph Ejercito Estrada has publicly committed to no longer seek any elective position or office.”

But the same document signed by Ms Arroyo acknowledges that “he is hereby restored to his civil and political rights.”

Brillantes said the clause showing Estrada’s promise not to seek public office anymore was not necessarily a “condition.”

“It’s just a ‘whereas’ clause which is not really part of the pardon,” he said.

Anthony Golez, deputy spokesperson of the President, said Ms Arroyo had no regrets over pardoning her predecessor.

“It was done out of reconciliation, a goodwill and good gesture coming from the President,” Golez told reporters.

“It was not [done at the] spur of the moment. The sincerity of the President was there, and it’s up to [Estrada] how he would accept that sincerity.” With a report from Michael Lim Ubac