MANILA, Philippines—A storm threatens to wallop the Philippines but a huge computer that dominates the forecasting room of the nation’s weather service is on screensaver mode showing a cartoon pattern of unexploded bombs.

While Typhoon “Pepeng” (international name: Parma) ominously hovers near the main island of Luzon, the computer has no data to receive as the main weather radar on a hilltop in Baguio City is out of action—again.

This scenario played out on Tuesday when Agence France Presse visited the forecasters in Manila to examine why they failed to predict the ferocity of Tropical Storm “Ondoy” (international name: Ketsana) that killed nearly 300 people in and around the capital on Sept. 26.

“Our old radar has limitations,” said Fredolina Baldonado, a meteorologist at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

“It has a blind spot to the south and that includes Metropolitan Manila,” Baldonado added.

This, she said, explained why the forecasters were unable to warn the residents of Manila before 42-cm rainfall—the heaviest deluge in more than four decades—was dumped on the nation’s capital.

Asked why the radar was not working on Tuesday as Filipinos looked to PAGASA for guidance on Pepeng, senior weather forecaster Rene Paciente gave a matter-of-fact explanation about the radar breakdown in Baguio.

Irony unintended

A landslide had disturbed the alignment of its antenna, and as a result could not transmit data to the forecaster’s headquarters, Paciente said.

Stuck in the middle of the Pacific typhoon belt, the country’s first line of defense for dangerous weather is PAGASA, an acronym which without any intended irony is the Filipino word for “hope.”

The weather service has a limited network of radar stations to track an average of 19 typhoons that approach the country each year, with nine or 10 of those storms making landfall to claim a combined tally of hundreds of lives.

While weather forecasters around the world are often subject to derision for getting their predictions wrong, PAGASA is a particularly vulnerable target with critics using the events of recent weeks to strengthen their arguments.

However, PAGASA operations chief Nathaniel Cruz insisted he was in charge of a “24/7” system, manned at any one time by up to four forecasters.

The forecasters were supported by as many as three cartographers who plotted the weather systems on graphs, up to two weather satellite experts and two meteorological telecommunications men, he said.

No beggar amid shanties

Cruz also rejected one common assertion that PAGASA was not getting government funding needed to perform properly.

“It is incorrect to say PAGASA has been left begging for funds,” Cruz said, adding the government had given the weather service P4 billion for equipment upgrades over the past five years.

Nevertheless, PAGASA’s headquarters is an old, squat building on a sprawling government compound in Quezon City, which has been overrun by squatters.

One side of the street houses PAGASA, the Bureau of Internal Revenue and other government agencies, while on the other side and behind the buildings are shantytowns housing thousands of squatters.

Focus on plan

Cruz urged people to focus on a plan to buy five modern Doppler radars worth $100,000 each that would dramatically improve PAGASA’s forecasting abilities.

The radars would give the country warnings six hours ahead of typhoons, and would be able to predict the intensity of rain expected to fall within an area as small as two square kilometers.

The plan is for two of the radars to be installed next year on either seaward flank of Manila, remedying the current radar’s blind spot that caused the deadly miss when Ondoy hit.