MANILA, Philippines — Be prepared for the onset of El Niño, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Friday.

In its July 2009 weather outlook, Pagasa said the country might experience a transition from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions to a “weak El Niño.”

“A transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions will likely continue in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Statistical and dynamical models indicate a probability of a weak El Niño to develop in the coming months,” the agency said.

50% chance

Pagasa first raised the possibility of the coming of El Niño last month.

Pagasa spokesperson and Deputy Administrator for Operations and Services Nathaniel Cruz told the Inquirer that models by international monitoring agencies indicate an “above 50 percent chance” of the onset of moderate El Niño conditions.

“For now, there is no need to panic. El Niño is not like a storm whose effect we can immediately feel. It could take months before we can feel the effects. We have time to plan mitigation measures,” he said.

El Niño usually means lack of rainfall and lesser tropical cyclones for the Philippines.

Cruz said this would have an effect on sectors that depend on water like agriculture, energy and even health.

“For the farmers, it is time to plan their planting period, or plant other crops that require less water,” he said.

Pagasa, Cruz said, has been meeting monthly and coordinating with other government agencies on mitigation measures against El Niño.

Transition to El Niño

Cruz’s statements came after the United States Climate Prediction Center, an office under the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, said in a monthly report that the equatorial Pacific Ocean has “transitioned ... to El Niño conditions.”

According to the center, climatic trends favor a “weak-to-moderate strength El Niño” into the northern hemisphere winter of 2009, “with further strengthening possible thereafter.”

It also said the sea surface temperature climbed to one degree Celsius above normal along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific in June.

The Climate Prediction Center also said temperatures in other tropical regions were also above normal, with warmer than usual readings of as much as 200 meters below the ocean surface.

El Niño is caused by warming of the seas in the Pacific and is associated with increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific but with drier than normal conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

A Reuters report said El Niño would pose major problems to wheat production in Australia, affect palm oil output in major producers Malaysia and Indonesia, and hit rice production in the Philippines, the world’s biggest importer of the staple.