MANILA, Philippines?Can he? Will he? Should he?

Joseph Estrada?s insistence that he can run again for president in 2010 not only divided legal experts, but drew pieces of unsolicited advice and early warnings.

A spokesperson for the Commission on Elections (Comelec) said Estrada?s candidacy, once filed with the agency, would ?likely? be met with protests.

The leader of the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) said Estrada, 72, should just settle down as an ?adviser? to the next president, and reminded him of how he lost power because of corruption charges.

Even an election lawyer who services the Estrada-backed political party United Opposition (UNO) said the deposed leader should ?give others a chance? instead of joining next year?s race to Malacañang.

Sixto Brillantes said Estrada might still be enjoying the support of a ?mass base, [but] he?s not that strong anymore as he was in 1998,? the year he garnered the most number of votes in the history of Philippine presidential elections.

For Brillantes, the ?man to beat? in 2010 would be Vice President Noli De Castro, especially if the former broadcaster would get the ?quiet? support of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in terms of funding and machinery.

Just be a ?tutor?

?I don?t think he (Estrada) should run again. He should think about it well,? Brillantes told the Philippine Daily Inquirer Tuesday.

CBCP president and Jaro Archbishop Angel Lagdameo sent a similar message to Estrada: ?We do not know what the law says in particular about his situation. But my advice (to him) is give others a chance.?

?Be like Presidents Cory Aquino and Fidel Ramos who will act as a kind of adviser, even a tutor to the newly elected president,? he added.

Lagdameo reminded Estrada that he did not finish his term in the first place because of the many controversies that hounded his administration.

Comelec spokesperson James Jimenez said that ??if Erap (Estrada?s monicker) files his COC [certificate of candidacy], we will accept it. But a protest is likely.?

Estrada may face a pre-election protest, Jimenez said, like in the case of his late friend, actor Fernando Poe Jr., who ran for the presidency in 2004. A lawyer had questioned Poe?s citizenship shortly after he filed his COC.

Jimenez said those who wanted to contest Estrada?s candidacy may file a protest either with the Comelec or the Supreme Court.

?It will be a long thing, but hopefully not too long. We have to prepare the ballots by January 2010,? he said.

In an Inquirer report on Tuesday, Estrada gave the strongest hints yet that he would seek a second term in the Palace should the opposition fail to unite behind a single candidate.

He also said it had become ?clear to me that the opposition is 90-percent sure? it will not come up with unifying a standard-bearer.

Legal study

Citing a ?legal study? prepared by his lawyers, Estrada argued that the constitutional ban on the reelection of chief executives applied to ?sitting presidents? and not to past leaders like him who wasn?t even able to finish his term.

Driven out of Malacañang in a ?people power? uprising in 2001, Estrada was convicted of plunder and later granted presidential pardon six years later.

The pardon, granted in October 2007, stated that Estrada ?has publicly committed to no longer seek any elective position or office.? It also cited the state policy of releasing convicts who have reached the age of 70.

But Estrada on Tuesday noted that his political rights had been ?restored? by the same executive clemency.

He also said ?the [constitutional] ban was intended for sitting presidents, so they will not use the vast resources to stay in power. I am not a sitting president. I am not seeking reelection. I am running again.?

Ban is ?lifetime?

But Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago Tuesday disagreed, saying the Constitution imposes a ?lifetime? ban on presidents who want to run again for the same office.

?The applicable rule is where the law doesn?t distinguish, we should not distinguish,? she said.

?So if the constitutional provision states the president [is not eligible for reelection], notice that it doesn?t say the incumbent or the president who has been removed from office and didn?t finish his term.?

?It didn?t make any qualification. It uses the general word ?President.? Remember the rule: There is no distinction there, so you can?t make a distinction,? she told reporters.

The matter of Estrada?s qualifications to run for president again was already an ?open and shut? case, Santiago said. ?You bring it to the Supreme Court, it will be dismissed right away.?

Coming from outside

For former Justice Secretary Serafin Cuevas, Estrada may have a point.

?My postulation [is that] the prohibition applies only to an incumbent in order to insulate the office from being utilized as a means of availing of all the facilities of the government, the finances, the military, the police ? to work in favor of the incumbent in that reelection,? Cuevas said.

?If one comes from the outside?meaning, if he?s a former president?he is no longer an incumbent. Therefore, he is not running for a reelection. He is running anew,? Cuevas told reporters at the House of Representatives.

Under this interpretation of the Constitution, former Presidents Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos could run for again for president, Cuevas said.

Though doubtful of Estrada?s chances in 2010, Brillantes said ?the Constitution should be construed liberally in favor of allowing him to run.?

Political suicide

Another election lawyer, Romulo Macalintal, whose clients include De Castro and Ms Arroyo, said ?it is clear as the light? in Section 4, Article VII of the Constitution that an elected president ?shall not be eligible for any reelection.?

?When one runs for the same position, then he is seeking reelection,? Macalintal said in a statement. ?Unless the said provision of the Constitution is amended, Estrada and those similarly situated cannot seek reelection for president.?

Macalintal said it would be ?political suicide? for any party to field a presidential contender like Estrada whose eligibility could become the central issue of the campaign.

?People would rather be sure that their votes are counted instead of casting [them] for someone whose qualification issue is not yet resolved,? he said.

?The entire campaign period will be used by Estrada and his party explaining to the electorate that he is qualified instead of informing the electorate of his program of government.?

JPE: ?I think he?ll run?

?I?m afraid Estrada is trying to romanticize the issue,? said presidential political adviser Gabriel Claudio.

?But really, the question before us is a simple matter that affects a clear interpretation of the Constitution,? he added.

Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile said the question should not be whether Estrada could run again, but whether he would.

??And I think he will,? Enrile said. With reports from Philip C. Tubeza and Dona Pazzibugan