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Noli, Erap, Manny lead in Pulse survey


Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 04:11:00 11/19/2008

Filed Under: Politics, Eleksyon 2010, Research

MANILA, Philippines—Filipinos still do not have a clear choice for the country’s next President, but had the May 2010 presidential election been held last October, it would have been a five-way contest, according to the latest survey by Pulse Asia Inc.

The October 2008 Ulat ng Bayan survey found “practically the same percentages of Filipinos” supporting Vice President Noli de Castro (18 percent), former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada (17 percent), former Senate President Manuel Villar Jr. (17 percent), Sen. Francis Escudero (15 percent) and Sen. Loren Legarda (13 percent).

The survey, conducted from Oct. 14 to Oct. 27, asked the question: “Of the people on this list, whom would you vote for as President of the Philippines if the elections of 2010 were held today and they were presidential candidates?”

“Filipinos’ presidential preferences hardly changed between July and October 2008,” Pulse Asia said in a statement released on Monday.

Since July, Estrada and Escudero gained a percentage point each (from 16 percent to 17 percent and from 14 percent to 15 percent, respectively), while Legarda lost a percentage point (from 14 percent to 13 percent).

Villar gains 5 points

Pulse Asia also noted that “marginal changes” may be observed in the overall voter preferences for Villar, who gained 5 percentage points (from 12 percent to 17 percent), and for De Castro, who lost 4 percentage points (from 22 percent to 18 percent), between July and October.

The release of the survey results came on the same day that Villar resigned as Senate President.

“A five-way race involving these individuals also emerges in the rest of Luzon, while in the Visayas, it is a three-way contest for the presidency among Vice President de Castro (22 percent), Senator Legarda (21 percent) and Senator Villar (18 percent),” Pulse Asia said.

In Metro Manila, Escudero led with 22 percent, while Estrada was “the clear choice” in Mindanao with 30 percent.

Across classes, those belonging to the poorest Class E also favored the deposed leader (27 percent), while in the Class ABC, Villar (19 percent) and Escudero (17 percent) shared the top spot.

De Castro (18 percent), Villar (18 percent) and Escudero (17 percent) were the preferred candidates of those in Class D.

Also on the list were Senators Panfilo Lacson (7 percent) and Manuel Roxas II (6 percent), Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (1 percent), Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chair Bayani Fernando (1 percent) and Bro. Eddie Villanueva of the Jesus is Lord Movement (1 percent).

The survey used face-to-face interviews, with a multistage probability sample of 1,200 adult Filipinos. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Kate Pedroso, Inquirer Research



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