MANILA, Philippines?For every 10-percent increase in food prices, about 2.3 million more Filipinos fall into poverty, according to a new study by an Asian Development Bank economist.

And if the price of rice alone rises by the same rate, expect 660,000 people to swell the ranks of the poor, said ADB economist Hyun Son.

Families forced into such struggles would usually cut down spending on health and children?s education, the expert said in a paper titled ?Has Inflation Hurt the Poor? Regional Analysis in the Philippines.?

Using household surveys and detailed price data from 2003 to 2006, the study analyzed the impact of price surges?both in food and nonfood commodities?on the living standards of Filipinos across income levels.

The study suggested that a 10-percent rise in nonfood prices?such as fuel and utilities?would drive an additional 1.7 million people into poverty.

Standard of living declined

About 160,000 more Filipinos would slip into poverty with every 10-percent increase in fuel prices alone, it added.

From 2003 to 2006, ?the severity of poverty (in the country) rose by 16.8 percent while the standard of living declined by about 1 percent over the period.?

The decline in the standard of living due to food price increases was particularly greater for the poorest of the poor.

?At worse, these households struggling to meet the minimum standards of living might have no choice but to cut down their expenditures on health and children?s education,? the study said.

Yet the effects of rising food prices may differ across households, the study said.

?With increasing food prices, some will gain and some will lose,? the study said. ?(It) may lead to income gains for net producers.

?However, many urban and rural poor who are food consumers and not necessarily producers suffer the most from rising food prices,? it said.

?Specifically, the poor are highly sensitive to the price changes in food, particularly staple food items such as rice,? the study said.

?Hence, safety measures will be required particularly for the poorest of the poor to be able to cushion the negative impact of higher food prices on their spending.?

The study proposed an alternative price index for the poor, one that would take their consumption patterns into account.

The study concluded that the increase in food prices has been the major factor causing high inflation in the Philippines, while that in nonfood items played a relatively minor role.

?It is wiser thus to direct government policies toward stabilizing food prices,? the study said.

?Given these current trends, moreover, monetary policy may not be an effective tool to combat rising inflation. Such policies may push the economy into recession, which will hurt the poor even more,? it said.