WHOEVER WINS
US shifts in Asia policy seen
Agence France-Presse
First Posted 09:41:00 10/05/2008
Filed Under: US elections, Foreign affairs & international relations
WASHINGTON -- US policy in Asia is expected to undergo major shifts, whoever wins the race to the White House.
Both presidential contenders, senators Barack Obama and John McCain, have new ideas on how to handle a resurgent China, a nuclear-armed North Korea and address the rising Islamic militant threat in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
They also have fresh strategies to beef up alliances in Asia, engage the region in energy security and maintain US influence despite the severe effects of the current financial turmoil at home.
Incumbent President George W. Bush may have been credited by some experts for pursuing policies that have boosted ties with major powers such as China, India and Japan but the Obama and McCain campaigns feel amends are in order.
"The whole range of relationships [is] in trouble," warned Obama's top Asia advisor Robert Gelbard.
"We have to recognize the real importance of Asia that has developed over the last eight years with a great deal of neglect from this administration," he said.
Obama is expected to push for China's entry into the Group of Eight (G8) major powers and link Beijing to a trilateral nuclear energy cooperation network with the United States and Japan, his strategists said.
"It's ridiculous to exclude one of the world's largest economies, third largest economy" from the G8, said Frank Jannuzi, an East Asia specialist in the Obama campaign.
While Bush has relied heavily on China to help end North Korea's nuclear weapons drive, Republican candidate McCain prefers an aggressive policy to achieve the goal by applying more pressure on Pyongyang through a united front with treaty allies South Korea and Japan.
"The real question will come down to which candidate is ready to make the hard call on issues like trade or on the negotiating process with North Korea and keep a focus on our allies' interests because we need them," said Michael Green, top McCain advisor on Asia policy.
McCain has blamed Obama for the failure of the Democratic-led Congress to ratify a US-South Korea free trade agreement, which the Bush administration wanted to use as a launching pad for a Pan Asian free trade initiative.
But the Obama campaign called the agreement flawed because of "inadequate treatment" of US automobile exports to South Korea.
McCain could also push for UN Security Council intervention in the Korean nuclear crisis if Pyongyang does not live up to its pledge to verify its nuclear program and resolve a kidnapping dispute with Japan, his aides said.
Both Obama and McCain are also equally concerned about the rising Taliban and Al-Qaeda threat in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Obama said that he would launch military strikes on extremist targets inside Pakistan if the Islamabad government is unwilling or unable to act.
"If the United States has Al-Qaeda, [Osama] bin Laden, top-level lieutenants in our sights, and Pakistan is unwilling or unable to act, then we should take them out," he said at a recent public debate with McCain ahead of the November 4 elections.
Obama also repeated his favored strategy of taking US troops from Iraq and sending them to Afghanistan to better deal with a reconstituted Al-Qaeda.
McCain countered by calling for a "new strategy" against Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan but did not provide details.
"We're going to have to help the Pakistanis go into these areas and obtain the allegiance of the people. It's going to be tough," he said.
"I see the nexus of Afghanistan-Pakistan as the most dangerous area in the world," Obama strategist Gelbard said.
US forces in Afghanistan have launched cross border attacks on suspected militants hiding in Pakistan, much to the anger of the new democratic government in Islamabad.
Obama and McCain also appear to be receptive to Washington signing up to a non-aggression treaty with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a precondition laid down by the group to nations wanting to participate in an annual East Asian Summit.
The Bush administration has refused to sign it due to bureaucratic rather than strategic reasons, some experts said.
"We have managed to walk away as Asia has been moving forward on a lot of this regional architecture, particularly over the last decade, and we've left the terrain wide open for China and Russia as it's moved forward," Gelbard said.
He said an Obama administration could sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation "with reservations we need to assure our own basic fundamental security issues, including nuclear issues, so we can then have a seat at the table, literally, for the East Asia Summit."
"I think many Asian experts would say we need to look at a way to get more engaged in the East Asia summit. That gets us in the door," said Green of the McCain campaign.
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