MANILA, Philippines - Poverty-stricken Maguindanao continues to face a bleak and bloody future as a consequence of the Nov. 23 massacre, according to a professor specializing in Mindanao affairs.
"It's going to be bloody in that area, the entire province will be in disarray," Kyoto-based professor, Patricio Abinales, told the Inquirer in an interview on Friday.
The factors that made Maguindanao the desolate province that it was remain, according to Abinales.
Among these are the politically driven clan war between the Ampatuans and Mangudadatus and national politicians who will need the province in the 2010 presidential race for the swing votes it traditionally delivers in crucial elections.
Moreover, as the province grappled with a power vacuum with the fall of the Ampatuans, Abinales said the massacre and instability in the region had foreign governments like Japan thinking twice about pouring development aid into the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) while the rest of Mindanao continued to grow and prosper.
Maguindano belongs to the five-province ARMM.
"Definitely, Maguindanao will continue to be poor. The Americans are not putting money for development. The Japanese are having second thoughts because [of the massacre] and their [aid] commitment is for the infrastructure of ARMM," he said.
As professor at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies in Kyoto University, an author and an Ozamiz City native, Abinales has done extensive studies on the political, economic and socio-cultural aspects of Mindanao.
Like the rest of the world, Abinales was shocked by the extent of the massacre in which the suspects broke a basic code in a clan war: Do not hurt the women.
The wife and female relatives of Buluan Vice Mayor Esmael Mangudadatu were among those slaughtered by more than 100 armed men allegedly led by Datu Unsay Mayor Andal Ampatuan Jr., the prime suspect.
"There's always the uncontrollable kid, right? I'm sure the old man built that empire carefully," Abinales said.
Ampatuan Jr. has always been described as the quiet and least known among Maguindanao Gov. Andal Ampatuan Sr.'s children with his first wife.
The murder of the Mangudadatu women would be a reason for the war between the two families to continue in the years to come, he said. "There's no time limit in a 'rido' (clan war). It can go on for generations."
Asked what the government could do in this situation, Abinales said: "None."
He took note of how politicians would need powerful political clans to win votes.
"Now, everybody is appreciating the power of the ARMM. Here's a regional body with an P11-billion budget covering five provinces with probably additional funds from foreign sources. It's a war zone and the money cannot be accounted because COA (Commission on Audit) can't go there out of fear. What do you with that? That's a gold mine for a politician who wants to win power," Abinales said.
Unless the two families talk, Abinales doubted that the feud would be resolved, especially so that the rido was political in nature and a clan's power over the province was at stake.
"This is the worst kind of rido because it is politically driven. It's not about money; it's about power. A Mindanao politician told me that political rido will never be solved because you go after positions. There has never been any political rido that was resolved with finality," Abinales said.
