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'Ramil' now expected Thursday night or early Friday

By Nikko Dizon
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 08:56:00 10/21/2009

Filed Under: Weather, Ramil

MANILA, Philippines?(UPDATE 2) Typhoon "Ramil" (international name: Lupit) was expected to make landfall late Thursday night or early Friday morning even as it slightly slowed down over the Pacific, the weather bureau said Wednesday.

A high pressure area near Hong Kong and the typhoon's wind shear, or different wind directions, slowed "Ramil" down as it headed toward Northern Luzon.

For two days, "Ramil" traveled at 17 kilometers per hour but slowed down to 15 kilometers per hour, moving west-southwest Wednesday morning, said Nathaniel Cruz, deputy administrator of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), at a press conference.

"Ramil" also slightly weakened, packing maximum winds of 175 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 210 kilometers per hour. Nonetheless, Pagasa officials continued to advise the public and local disaster preparedness teams to prepare for a strong typhoon.

"The conditions are favorable again but it could still gain strength before making a landfall. It is still possible for 'Ramil' to turn into a supertyphoon," said Pagasa chief, Dr. Prisco Nilo.

Nilo said Pagasa could also raise Storm Signal No. 4 by Thursday over Northern Luzon as "Ramil" comes ashore.

"It is possible for the typhoon to still gain strength while it is still over the sea. But there are less chances for it to intensify as it nears land," Nilo said.

On Wednesday, Pagasa raised Storm Signal No. 3 over the Calayan and Babuyan Islands and the Batanes group of islands.

Pagasa said that in at least 18 hours, these areas could expect winds of 101 to 185 kilometers per hour.

Signal No. 2, with winds of 61 to 100 kilometers per hour, was hoisted over Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Isabela, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, and La Union.

Signal No. 1, with winds of 30 to 60 kilometers per hour, was raised in Pangasinan, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, and Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, and Zambales.

Cruz said that the strong winds and rain brought by "Ramil" would be felt in Northern Luzon by Thursday.

He warned of possible storm surges and high waves in coastal waters in provinces covered by Storm Signal Nos. 2 and 3.

At 4 p.m. Wednesday, the eye of the typhoon was spotted at 455 kilometers east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan.

"Ramil" is expected to be at 130 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan or at 230 kilometers east northeast of Laoag City by Thursday afternoon.

By Friday afternoon, the typhoon is expected to be in the vicinity of Laoag City and at 165 kilometers west of Laoag City by Saturday afternoon.

Nilo said that with the current speed of "Ramil", it would be overland for the entire Friday before moving out to the South China Sea by Saturday.

Nilo said Pagasa continues its hourly monitoring of weather conditions that may influence the movement of "Ramil".

Nilo said that only one model output indicated that "Ramil" might veer towards Taiwan and only clip the extreme part of Cagayan province. All other models show that the high pressure area would move up north, giving way to "Ramil" to cut across Northern Luzon.

"Ramil" would hardly affect Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Nilo said.

The rains and winds that will be felt in these areas would be the result of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

Dr. Susan Espinueva, chief of Pagasa's hydrometeorological division, said that the state weather bureau and officials of the San Roque Dam in Pangasinan decided "not to close the dam until 'Ramil' arrives" as a precautionary measure.

One gate of the San Roque Dam is open at a minimum of 0.5 meters.

"When 'Ramil' arrives, San Roque Dam will be closed because it has the capacity to buffer local rainfall and water from Ambuklao and Binga Dams," Espinueva said at a press conference.

She said that the reservoir level of Magat Dam in Isabela has been lowered to 190 meters for it to have a bigger storage capacity. It has one gate open at one meter.

The Ambuklao Dam has two gates open at two meters each while Pantabangan Dam has one gate open at four meters.

Although Pagasa has yet to monitor another storm brewing near the Philippine area of responsibility, Nilo said it was possible that there could be one more weather disturbance to hit the country this month.

Nilo added that one or two more storms could arrive in November.

"Ramil" is the 18th typhoon to hit the country this year, and the third in October alone.



Copyright 2012 Philippine Daily Inquirer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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