El Niño: No relief in sight
THE EL NIÑO this year is expected to remain strong throughout the northern hemisphere winter and will not weaken until late spring or early summer, according to climate experts in the United States.
In its latest monthly update, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said a strong El Niño continued during November “as indicated by well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.”
Also, temperatures below the ocean surface in the central and eastern Pacific decreased slightly although still well above average.
“Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-2016, followed by weakening and a transition to no El Niño or La Niña during the late spring or early summer,” the NOAA said.
The agency added that the forecaster consensus remains nearly unchanged from last month, with the expectation that this year’s El Niño will rank among the three strongest episodes since 1950.
Earlier this month, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the prevailing El Niño is nearing its peak but may fall short of being the worst on record as temperatures are apparently weakening.
“While sea surface temperatures remain close to record-high values, some El Niño indicators are now showing signs of easing,” the Abom said in its latest fortnightly update.
“However, the current El Niño is likely to persist well into 2016,” the agency added. “El Niño indicators, notably sea surface and subsurface temperatures, westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific, and cloudiness near the (international) date line, remain well above El Niño thresholds,” it said.
The bureau said that while the current El Niño was likely among the three strongest occurrences of the phenomenon during the past 50 years, it had yet to surpass temperatures recorded in 1997-1998 and in 1982-1983.
These include readings below the Pacific Ocean’s surface, which was more than 12 degrees Celsius above average in 1982-1983 but has so far peaked at around eight degrees Celsius above average this year.
El Niño is an abnormal weather pattern that is caused by the warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, off the coast of South America. This occurs when the normal trade winds weaken (or even reverse), which lets the warm water that is usually found in the western Pacific flow instead toward the east.
