Wanted: 80,000 jobs this year for Cebu
Last week, I said here that “Cebu’s labor force is growing at 40,000 a month.” That was yearly, not monthly. How did I arrive at this figure?
The population of the whole island of Cebu which consists of the province of Cebu and the three highly-urbanized cities of Cebu City, Lapu-Lapu City and Mandaue City, was placed at 4.2 million in the May 2010 census with a computed 2.2 percent annual growth rate from 2000 to 2010. Using the same growth rate, the projected population of Cebu would have reached 4.5 million as of May this year.
About 65 percent of the national population is of the working age 15 years old and over. Normally, about 65 percent is the labor force participation rate (LFPR). The LFPR goes up with a fast-rising economy and down when the economy is slowing or reversing direction. With 65 percent LFPR, Cebu is estimated to have a total labor force of about 1.9 million this year. If the labor force were to grow also at the same annual rate as the total population (2.2 percent), Cebu’s labor force should have increased by at least 40,000 this year.
Do not think, however, that Cebu needs to create only 40,000 new jobs if we were to avoid more joblessness and poverty this year. In addition to the annual increase in our labor force we must also reckon the existing unemployed workers. The country’s unemployment rate is around 7 percent to 8 percent annually. By just applying 7.0 percent unemployment rate to our total labor force (National Statistics Office does not give unemployment rate data by province and cities), Cebu would have about 130,000 unemployed workers. If Cebu wants to cut down the unemployment rate to say 5 percent this year, it must create not just 40,000 but 80,000 new jobs. If Cebu creates only 50,000 new jobs this year, this will only cut down the number of the unemployed from 130,000 to 120,000.
Job creation is the first important step towards reducing poverty. I wonder therefore what our local government units (LGU), with 40 percent of the national internal revenue going to them annually, are doing to create jobs in their respective localities.
Is job creation the LGUs’ priority? Do they know how to create more jobs other than creating new positions for the supporters of the newly-elected local officials? Do they know what kind of jobs to create and in what sector in the economy? And more than this, do they know what jobs and what sectors are secure enough to last for many years to come and pay well?
A business process outsourcing (BPO) job pays well when compared to many other jobs in Cebu, but how long will BPO hiring last? In ranking, Cebu is in the global top 10 BPO cities but many more cities in the world are also aiming to attract more BPOs, including here in the Philippines such as Iloilo, Davao and Cagayan de Oro, for example. Is Cebu strong enough to maintain its global position?
Cebu has six operating special economic zones and a few other Peza-approved SEZs which are still hibernating like the South Road Properties (SRP) in Cebu City. In the six operating economic zones, the number of locators is not growing fast enough despite the reported rapid growth of the national economy. Meanwhile, the SRP which was originally intended as an industrial economic center is instead turning into a high end residential and commercial area. What kind of jobs will be created there, how many and how lasting? Will this kind of development give more benefits to Cebu in the long run than the original intended use of the SRP?
Admittedly, tourism creates a lot of jobs although not as high paying as the BPO industry. However, while Cebu is one of the priority tourism destination areas as far as the national tourism plan is concerned, we still have to see one major Tourism Enterprise Zone operating here. Moreover, I also wonder if Cebu has an integrated and coordinated plan to promote Cebu as an international tourist destination area. As I see it, most of the promotions made for Cebu are made more to direct the tourists to one particular resort or hotel rather than the whole of Cebu as such. And that is because most of the promotional activities are done separately by the individual tourism business establishment.
Now the 2015 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) is fast closing in. Cebu, through the effort of some concerned business groups, made a strong pitch to host some of the 13 ministerial and senior officials level meetings to be held prior to the final meeting of 21 heads of states that comprise the Apec. Many cities also made their pitch. I have not heard yet of the final decisions where to hold these meetings but considering Cebu’s good facilities, it is assured of bagging at least two or even more of these meetings aside from being the best alternative site for the Heads of States Meeting which will be held in Manila. Yet we still have to see actions in preparing Cebu for this momentous event
Going back to job creation, what are our LGUs doing to help generate more jobs in our micro, small and medium scale enterprises? They comprise up to 98 percent of the total number of business establishments in the country. How many of them are found in Cebu? How fast are they growing? How profitable are they? How many of them have graduated into the large scale level? Are not many of them just disappearing annually and replaced by new ones who are also likely to disappear soon?
My point is this: Unless our LGUs are mindful enough of the economic and employment situation in their respective areas and undertake promotional activities to attract new investments that generate jobs, there can be no immediate and lasting solution to the so-called exclusive growth that still characterized the nation today. There will still be growth but only for the benefit of the few.
