Storm ‘Pablo’ could become supertyphoon



Weather forecasters fear an approaching storm, which is expected to enter the country’s area of responsibility on Monday morning, would turn into a supertyphoon even stronger than the destructive “Sendong” that hit the same threatened area of the country last year.

“In terms of rainfall and wind strength, Typhoon “Bopha” (to be renamed “Pablo” when it enters the country’s area of responsibility) has the potential to be stronger than Sendong,” said Nathaniel Servando, head of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). He was referring to the storm that killed hundreds of residents of Cagayan de Oro and Iligian cities in December 2011.

“This new storm (Pablo) can be very destructive,” Servando said by phone, adding that it was moving in the same direction as Sendong.

Disaster response authorities have ordered local disaster units to prepare to evacuate residents living by rivers and in low-lying areas in Eastern Visayas and eastern Mindanao that may bear the brunt of the storm.

The storm was monitored at 730 km east of southern Philippines on Saturday morning, moving west at 20 kph.

Already it was packing maximum sustained winds of 165 kph. “Considering that it’s still far from the Philippine area of responsibility, it can still grow much stronger,” Servando said.

“Unless it changes direction, this storm appears headed for the same areas in northern Mindanao that Sendong hit,” he added.

“By the time it arrives, it may have become as strong as that,” he said when asked if the typhoon could reach wind strength of 210 kph, which US meteorologists classify as a “superstorm.”

As of Saturday, Bopha had a diameter of 400-500 kilometers. Sendong spanned about 600 kilometers, Servando said.

Servando said disaster officials were right to make early preparations for the storm, which is expected to make landfall either in the northeastern parts of Mindanao or northern Samar on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.

Rare for Mindanao

He said Pablo could bring the same devastation as Sendong, including landslides and flash floods that buried thousands of homes across northern Mindanao on Dec. 16 and 17, 2011.

Sendong left more than 1,200 people dead and destroyed P1.3 billion in agriculture and property.

Residents were largely unprepared as typhoons rarely hit Mindanao unlike Luzon and the Visayas.

Asked what the chances were the storm would veer from its projected path, Servando said: “Almost all our models show it moving in a west northwest direction. But there have been occasions in the past when a storm suddenly changed direction.”

The weather bureau said the storm was still too far away to affect any part of the country “within the next two days.” Even so, Pagasa advised disaster managers to be on the alert.

In its weather outlook for Saturday, Pagasa said the Bicol region, Eastern Visayas and Mindanao will have partly cloudy skies with isolated brief rain showers or thunderstorms. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience fair weather, it said.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) has put local disaster response teams on alert.

NDRRMC Executive Director Benito Ramos said on Saturday he had requested that even cockpit arenas not be used starting next week so they could serve as emergency evacuation centers aside from gymnasiums, schools and churches.

“’Wag muna magsabong (Postpone the cockfights),” Ramos said.

“This is a strong (storm). I hope it melts so that we would have a nice Christmas. But the problem is this is a strong one, that’s why we have been preparing for it since (Friday),” Ramos said in Filipino.

Ramos said Sendong killed thousands because it entered at night and caught local residents off guard.

To ensure that such a tragedy would not be repeated, Ramos said the local disaster risk reduction management councils of affected regions in the Visayas and Mindanao have met to prepare evacuation and relief plans.

“Our local responders are ready,” Ramos said. With a report from Nikko Dizon

 First posted 11:57 pm | Saturday, December 1st, 2012

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  • kalikasanipagtanggol

    Force evacuation dapat at walang exceptions maiiwan lang barangay, police, military para bantayan ang mga kabahayan (huwag lang sana bantay salakay ang mga tinamang lintek), rescue units kung sakali may makapagtago at bandang huli ay magpa rescue!!! Magpapasko di bale ng mawalang ng gamit kesa kapamilya o mahal sa buhay!

  • freedom of navigation

    Magpasa tayo ng batas na magri-require sa lahat ng magpapatayo ng buildings kailangan may 1 palapag o hanggan 2 palapag na ilalaan para sa evacuation kapag masama ang panahon. Magtayo din tayo ng maraming 2 story concrete public school buildings, dalawa ang purpose, shool at evacuation centers.

    • eirons1043

      Mas dapat po yata na ipatupad ang batas na bawal magtayo ng bahay sa pampang ng ilog o lawa, gilid ng estero, sea and ocean front at isang malinaw na batas na naguutos sa lahat ng Mayor na every day eh linisin o alisin ang burak sa lahat ng ilog o lawa, canal, estero at imburnal.

      • newname

        maganda yon ganoong panukala at multang 20 years in prison and 5 million pesos fine. Tingnan natin kung may mag titirik pa ng bahay sa mga sinasabi mong mga delikado. Butas na ang bulsa at tatanda pa sa kulungan….

  • Juan Retablo

    global warming na po ito.  kahit dito sa australia, dumadalas na din ang mga pagbabago sa seasonal weather.  ang mga winter nagiging mas malamig, at ang mga summer nagiging mas mainit.  ang pagdating ng mga bagyo tulad ng “Sendong” sa Pilipinas ay maaaring mas dumalas pa.  pwede tayong magdasal para maibsan ang magiging mga epekto ng global warming, pero siguro naman pati ang isang Diyos o kaya ang isang Allah ay magsasabi din na ang mga tao mismo ay pwedeng gumawa ng paraan para kontrahin ang lalong pag-tindi ng global warming.  
    hindi na maiiwasan na talagang magbabago na ang klima at panahon na mararanasan ng ating mga anak habang lumalaki sila. ang pwede na lang gawin ay pigilan ang pag-laki ng problema.  kaya namang gawin ng mga Pilipino yan, basta ang importante lang ay bukod sa pagdasal natin ay makinig din naman sana tayo sa mga rekomendasyon ng contemporary science.  hindi naman siguro malayong isipin na ang isang Diyos or ang isang Allah ay gumagalaw din sa mga taong mortal na binyayaan ng karunungan para payuhan tayo laban sa global warming.

  • eirons1043

    I hope “Pablo” will not make a direct visit to his name sake saint in Laguna coz tiyak pati Metro M the most populated area in the entire country eh lagot.

  • kevv33

    Go to ‘Wunderground’ website to track this typhoon Pablo, its predicted winds velocity to go slow to Category 2 as it enters the Philippine area of responsibility., contrary to what the local meteorologist say it may grow stronger. But caution still has to be enforced though.

    • TheGUM

      The Wundergound forecast discusses that the typoon may actually gain strength as it continues to form, then a slight weakening after it reaches a steady-state condition, slow down due to land interaction as it passes the Philippines, then gain strength again as it leaves the islands.  The slight weakening as it nears land should not be taken lightly though, because the wind strength is just too strong, currently at Category 4, 131-155 mph (211-249 kph) 

      Here’s the discussion:

      “TY 26w is forecast to track on a steady west-northwestwardtrack along the southern periphery of the str, making landfall into the Philippine Islands by tau 60. The favorable environment of low vws, ample outflow, and high ocean heat content will allow for the system to intensify further over the next 12 hours, but is expected to remain steady in the following 12 hours as outflow and surface inflow begin to reach a steady-state condition. A slight weakening of the upper level support and a minor decrease in sea surface temperatures will allow for a slow decrease in intensity beyond tau24 through landfall. As TY 26w makes landfall through tau 72, an accelerated weakening trend is expected due to land interaction, but the system is expected to remain at typhoon strength as it crosses over the central Philippines.

      C. In the extended Taus, TY 26w will continue to track west-northwest and slow as it tracks through the Philippine Islands.Intensity will continue to decrease through the remainder of theforecast, but will begin to reorganize as TY 26w moves back overwater into the South China Sea.”

      I’m glad Philippine authorities are taking this threat very seriously.

  • Danny Bravo

    ttyphoon  pablo  is  not  a natural  disaster  this  is  a  kind  of  funishment  like  the  hurricane  in  usa  because  of  treatment  of  the  filipino  to  calunsod  now  black  hole  are  too  much  angry,,,,black  hole  is the  creator  of  tornado  and  typhoon this  is  called    god  or  gravity,,,, many  filipino  dont  know  the  characteristic  of  this  gravity  onlus.. scientist  knows  this  black  hole,,,alert  this  is  very  strong  because  the  force  of  this  is  a  kind  of  jeakousy,,,,,too  much  angry,,,  ,,,like    hurricane  sandy  ,dont  want  to  barack  obama  because    he  is  a  muslim

    • blainz

      Do not post while drunk.

    • ulag ko

      ha? ano daw?

    • kalikasanipagtanggol

       I believe ya! you seems to be the first victim!

    • Uragorn

      Whatever it is you’re taking, I would advise you to stop it already as it is starting to mess up your thought processes. (^_^)

    • Benjamin

      lakas ng tama mo totoy..ano ba tinira mo..solvent ?

    • Nagagalitna

      Bro sorry wala akong maintindihan sa English mo…hehehe

    • buttones

      Reassuring in a way to know that our mental health institutions are allowing inmates access to the web, very progressive of them and it’s always nice to get a point of view from ’the other side’ so to speak….I do of course entirely agree with your thesis and would welcome your views on the impending end of the world scenario- should I buy Xmas gifts, or should I save my pennies for a rainy day?
      Yours etc..Buttones
      Room 101
      Secure Wing,
      Rugby Clinic.

      • ARIKUTIK

        Save the ‘pennies’ of course. Just in case lady in red passby….. Simple calculus you can not solve ! and claims as someone of steely mind …. ewwwww……

  • roy roy
  • KarmaGMA

    God, please spare us from this super typhoon!!!

  • kalikasanipagtanggol

     I believe ya! you seems to be the fist victim!

  • Marckez

    People should  have learned from the past experience. Govt officials, residents of the areas that can be affected should not wait until last hour before they act. Be proactive to minimize damages to lives and properties.

  • xrisp

    Yes Lord, have mercy on us all!

  • newname

    bagyong Pablo get out and never bother the Philippines…Now na!

  • Edward

    not new…matagal ng pumasok ang bagyong ito especially sa site na ito..remember, pablo316, the self-proclaimed sole interpreter of the Bible…kung d pa nmn sunud sunod ang Catholic-related articles sa inquirer d susulpot si pablo316….remember him, pablo316….jejeje

  • Tamarindwalk

    One wonders why PAGASA has to assign a different name to storms than the international weather services.  It confuses matters.  Perhaps it’s time for PAGASA to conform to international reality.

    • buttones

      I have also wondered about this- I can see no practical reason for renaming the typhoons as they pass over PH, I wonder if other countries do this in our area? If a typhoon passes over five countries does it have five names? Atlantic hurricanes only have one no matter which country they pass over- it is rather strange….

  • Tausog51

    Although the wheather report says it is a super typhoon, or it has a potential to become a superstorm, and it will make landfall on early morning of Monday, take note that President Noynoy, seemed unconcerned of this development. As the President , it is his duty to inform the nation of the forthcoming typhoon, as today is already Sunday. He should not wait until the water was already rampaging catching the country by surprise. He should have emulated the way President Obama made preparations even two days before Sandy strucked New York.

    • Jack

      hindi siya concerned kasi karamihan sa tatamahan ng bagyo ay mga mahihirap. pagkatapos niyan magpapasurvey na naman sila at ang kalabasan ng survey ay nabawasan ang mga mahihirap sa ating bansa dahil karamihan sa kanila ay patay na. 

    • Maitum

      we the proper agencies to do that job. Is the NDRRMC not enough to let you know of the coming typhoon? Or you are just finding faults for the President.

  • kilabot

    25% increase in hiv/aids cases, an epidemic proportion;
    60% faster rise in sea water;
    7.1% gdp growth;
    super typhoon;
    earthquakes almost daily;

    No to rhbill;
    No to same-sex marriage;
    No to man-beast union;

  • Qatar

    ang kailangan ngayon ang pag dadasal na taimtim para sa mga kababayan natin sa pilipinas…lahat tayo manalangin sa Dios na Sana Hindi totoloy ang bagyong  pablo…

  • Maitum

    this is the right time we need these bishops to pray for us…never mind the RH Bill, we need your prayers the most now that this superstorm is coming…I hope you can do wonders for the people and not for RH Bill….

  • disqusted0fu

    if monsoon rains cause a huge catastrophe to our country nowadays, what more a super typhoon?!! Lord, have mercy! this is what happens when the president cancels majority of flood projects.

  • Edgardo Mendoza


  • warpiglets

    ito na yung bunga ng pagpabor ng pilipinas sa palestine sa UN. isang super typhoon.

    • TheGUM

      What the FXC* are you talking about?

      • warpiglets

        know history and read the Bible. hindi fiction lahat ng mga ito kundi nangyayari. 

    • judymarie

      What??? That is so weird ! Also, Palestine has a right to be recognised as a state by the UN !

  • Ross Brigoli

    Reading the comments below tells me that we are still an immature society! Anong kinalaman ng RH bill sa tropical storm? Anong kinalaman ng political decision sa weather? Pati ba naman weather patterns gagawin nyo pang superstition.

    Grow up pinoys! Ingat kayo mga nakatira sa North-eastern Mindanao.

  • Klepto

    Bring it on!!!!!
    I love to see the whole country getting wiped out by this typhoon. Eto lang ang paraan para malinis ang buong bansa. Literally, para malinis ang mga basura, kawatan na gobyerno, at bobo at tanga na sambayanan.
    Sana susunod dito ang 9.0 Earthquake at sabay-sabay na putok ng mga bulkan. Har har har har.
    Mabubunot sana ang Malacanang sa lupa at ihahagis ng bagyo sa South China Sea para pagdating doon, Tsusupa ang mga pultiko sa uten ng mga Amerikano habang kinakantot sa puwet ng mga Intsik.

    • raffyb0i

      pagtapos nalang sana ng pasko…

  • bugoybanggers

    Gusto na ng LORD of the RING na magbawas ng PILIPINO. Masyado ng marami (100Milyon ba naman) para hindi na kailangan ng RH Bill. Instant lang isang pasada… 25% agad LAGAS. Sana masama si mahal kong ED.

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