Seas rising 60 percent faster than UN forecast – study

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AFP FILE PHOTO

PARIS – Sea levels are rising 60-percent faster than the UN’s climate panel forecast in its most recent assessment, scientists reported on Wednesday.

At present, sea levels are increasing at an average 3.2 millimetres (0.125 inches) per year, a trio of specialists reported in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

This compares with a “best estimate” by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007, which projected that by today, the rise would be 2 mm (0.078 inches) per year.

The new figure converges with a widely-shared opinion that the world is heading for sea-level rise of around a metre (3.25 feet) by century’s end, co-author Grant Foster of US firm Tempo Analytics told AFP.

“I would say that a metre of sea level rise by the end of the century is probably close to what you would find if you polled the people who know best,” Foster said.

“In low-lying areas where you have massive numbers of people living within a metre of sea level, like Bangladesh, it means that the land that sustains their lives disappears, and you have hundreds of millions of climate refugees, and that can lead to resource wars and all kinds of conflicts,” he added.

“For major coastal cities like New York, probably the principal effect would be what we saw in Hurricane Sandy.

“Every time you get a major storm, you get a storm surge, and that causes a major risk of flooding. For New York and New Jersey, three more feet of water would be even more devastating, as you can imagine.”

The investigation, led by Stefan Rahmstorf of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), gauged the accuracy of computer simulations that the IPCC used in its landmark Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.

That report jolted governments into nailing climate change to the top of their agenda, culminating in the ill-fated Copenhagen Summit of 2009, and helped earn the Nobel Prize for the IPCC.

The new study gave high marks for the document’s forecast on global temperature, saying there was a “very good agreement” with what was being observed today, an overall warming trend of 0.16 degrees Celsius (0.28 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade.

But it said the IPCC’s projection for sea levels was much lower than what has turned out.

The panel’s prediction for the future — of a rise of up to 59 cms by 2100 — “may also be biased low,” it warned, a caution shared by other studies published in recent years.

Foster said the bigger-than-projected rise could be attributed to meltwater runoff from land ice, something that was a big unknown when the IPCC reported in 2007 and remains unclear today.

Other factors were technical uncertainty, he said.

The IPCC’s projection had been based on information from 1993 to 2003, and there has been more data since then, helping to prove the accuracy of satellite radars that measure ocean levels by bouncing radar waves off the sea surface.

The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report will be published in three volumes, in September 2013, March 2014 and April 2014.

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  • kilabot

    this must be due to violations against the law of nature.
    this is faster than the 25% increase in hiv/aids cases due to msm anal_ysis.
    the earth is going wild. and getting darker than the dark ages.

  • Danny Bravo

    if  you  need  a  surprise  do  not  post  my  comment  but  if  you  want  to  save  a  life  of  many  people  you  need  to  give  a  warning   ,,but  for  me  dont  post  dahil  kailangang  matapad  ang  nakasulat  sa  bibliya  na  2,2  bilyong  tao  ang  mamatay  iba-ibang  lahi

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/FMILZVJMPLRYOGFXL6PPNEVS24 Mike Arroyo

      Mag-aral ka munang iayos ang nasa isip mo bago mo i-post dito. Ang gulo mo e.

  • Danny Bravo

    mag-aral  kayo  ng  science  at  bible  at  hahaba  ang  buhay  ninyo  ,,,

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYRtmMxB5yw CrossWinds

    Luke 21:25
    [ The Coming of the Son of Man ] “And there will be signs in the sun, in the moon, and in the stars; and on the earth distress of nations, with perplexity, the sea and the waves roaring

    • buttones

      point being?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_M4UKQSWIRYY7324TFW4OI4F3JE AJ

    the Earth will survive, we will not.

    • buttones

      Very true- the earth will survive, until the inevitable a few billion years in the future, swallowed by the sun, and our gods and Saints will not make a dimes worth the difference….

  • Jesse_Bruce_Pinkman

    The sea level will rise by 1 meter in the next 100 years.

    So no need to panic people. 

    But if all the ice melted, sea level will rise by 70 meters. Now that’s a real waterworld.

  • buttones

    Recorded sea levels around PH are actually about 9cm, one of the highest in the world, it does not seem that much, but for a girl living at one meter above sea level , I have lost 1000 square meters of my property over the last six years- there is a solution to coastal erosion, just do it and explain to the DENR after the event- well they never gave a concern anyway, and they have no policy of protecting coastal erosion anyway…..

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_3TWVIBNBHJIBKXLUC5IT2JYM5E Harry

    With global warming and the increase of water surface, expect the atmospheric evaporation rate to increase also and we will be facing, in the future, rainstorms of unimaginable scale. Inundated fields and farms will no longer produce sufficient food. Deaths due to hunger and disease will decimate the world population to a point of new equilibrium between supply and demand. 

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